The current understanding of U.S. government shutdowns is a recent development, stemming from a revised interpretation of the Antideficiency Act of 1884. Historically, brief funding lapses did not halt government services. However, in 1980 and 1981, Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti's legal opinions introduced a stricter interpretation, requiring agencies to cease all non-essential operations during funding gaps. The only exceptions are activities critical for "the safety of human life or the protection of property."

The Presidential Cycle Theory holds that there is a four-year rhythm in U.S. stock market performance, coinciding with presidential terms. Notably, the second year of a presidency frequently presents the…

The Trump administration's 2025 agenda marks a fundamental overhaul of the federal administrative process through a systematic deregulation initiative. This policy rests on three main principles: an ambitious mandate to eliminate regulations, the creation of a new centralized administrative body for implementation, and the deployment of innovative legal strategies to accelerate the repeal process. At its core, Executive Order 14192 dictates a 10-to-1 rule, requiring the repeal of ten regulations for every new one introduced, alongside a regulatory budget aimed at achieving a net reduction in compliance costs.

On September 17, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a monetary easing cycle by lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, setting it at 4.00%−4.25%. This marks the first rate reduction of 2025, following a pause in the first half of the year and 100 basis points of cuts in Q4 2024. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that this decision was a risk management measure, primarily in response to a significant decline in the U.S. labor market, despite ongoing high inflation.

The fourth quarter (Q4) consistently demonstrates strong performance in U.S. equities, outperforming all other quarters. Fixed income assets tend to lag in this period while diversifying and non-standard assets can outperform.

Today we will look at the market’s historically weakest month since 1928. September has been a challenging month for the stock market, consistently showing negative average returns for major indices like the S&P 500 and the DJIA.

The current AI boom is often, and incorrectly, likened to the dot-com bubble. While both periods share characteristics such as transformative technology, rapid market growth, and investor enthusiasm, a deeper analysis reveals significant structural and financial differences.