Normally, I focus these weekly letters on one single pressing topic. Today, however, I don’t see one pressing topic to focus on. The record heat wave gripping much of the country seems to be the main topic of interest right now, and that wouldn’t make for an interesting letter. So, I comment on several current issues today I hope you will find interesting. Let’s get started.

Believe it or not, people are reluctant to tell others about their potentially controversial activities. As societies go, we Americans love our privacy. And why not?

Yet this reluctance to disclose can (and does) lead to under-reporting of these activities, which frustrates researchers who keep track of such information. Academics are frustrated that privacy-minded respondents impair their understanding of the world we live in, but that’s just how it is and has been throughout our nation’s history.

In 2022, about 45% of US households had at least one gun in their possession, according to surveys by Gallup and others. Gallup also found that nearly one-third of all US adults own a firearm.

I think it would be safe to say at this point that US equities have outperformed most forecasts for this year and have exceeded most investors’ expectations. As of last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 Index had gained almost 16% for the year. That’s pretty impressive given that most forecasters have been predicting a recession just ahead, and consumers seem to be in a dour mood about things in general.

Today we’ll look at how the equity markets have performed this year and speculate whether this impressive performance can continue. I suspect many of you reading this have your doubts, but I think most of us can agree that stocks have outperformed expectations so far in 2023.

Following that discussion, I’ll offer a few thoughts on why so many forecasters are so negative in their outlooks for the balance of 2023 and, in some cases, beyond. For many of these people, it is just their nature to be negative, no matter the circumstances. Never mind that they are usually wrong – that doesn’t seem to matter.

Finally, we’ll revisit the problem of rising office building vacancies. According to the National Association of Realtors, the US office vacancy rate hit a new record high in the first quarter of this year. If this trend continues, it poses a real threat to the US economy.

In most national elections, especially important ones like presidential elections, most likely voters have a decided opinion on which candidate they support and which one they oppose – and they vote accordingly. This is what elections are all about.

However, the latest polls from CNN and others show that more Americans than ever don’t want President Joe Biden OR former president Donald Trump to be our next president.

Usually, most Americans like one of the candidates running for president and oppose the other. That has been the norm for most of polling history. But not this time, apparently.