According to the most recent Gallup polls, more Americans this year (38%) said they are “very conservative or conservative” on SOCIAL ISSUES than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021 (30%). At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are “very liberal or liberal” has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remained about the same, near a third.

The last time this high a percentage of Americans said they were socially conservative was in 2012 when President Obama was in the White House, during a period when consistently more US adults identified as conservative rather than liberal on social issues.

The results are based on Gallup’s annual “Values and Beliefs” survey, conducted in May. The survey comes at a time when many states are considering policies regarding transgender matters, abortion and the teaching of gender and sexuality in schools.

The increase in conservative identification on social issues over the past two years was seen among nearly all political and demographic subgroups. Republicans show one of the largest increases, from 60% in 2021 to 74% today. Independents show a modest uptick of five percentage points, from 24% to 29%, while there has been no change among Democrats (10% in both 2021 and 2023).

All year, the mainstream media and those on the left have been predicting a recession for the US economy in 2023. Many have all but promised it. All this negativity has surprised me, frankly, since the left has its guy in the White House and until recently, control of both Houses of Congress. Why are they so negative, I’ve asked myself over and over.

My feeling like a broken record is because I have repeatedly written in these pages this year that I do NOT believe a recession is the most likely scenario. I still don’t. But the left keeps beating the drum, so I feel I have to respond.

On another note, I’ve always said I like to write about the things that interest me the most, and with that said, my thanks go out to the editors at The Economist who recently wrote a great article on American exceptionalism which has been on my mind ever since. The article appeared in April and was entitled “America’s Outperformance is a Marvel to Behold.” The article goes through a laundry list of reasons why America remains the most dominant and successful country in the world and why that’s not likely to change anytime soon.

We start today with some brief economic commentary. Things are pretty quiet right now with all eyes focused on what the Fed is going to do next week at its June policy meeting. With things on the economic front relatively quiet, I’ll shift our focus today from the markets and investing to the long-term weather outlook and a possible record “El Niño” this year.

It is impossible to predict how the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote next week. There are 12 members of the FOMC including so-called “hawks” and “doves,” so the vote could swing either way. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Switching gears to our main topic, I have decided to go a little different direction today from our usual focus on the economy, the markets and investing in general. Today, I want to focus on the upcoming weather outlook and the odds for a record “El Niño” this year. I think you’ll find it interesting.