OPEC+ Strategy and COP28 Ambitions Clash

This is definitely the week for news on fossil fuels production. OPEC+ members meet this week – delayed until this Thursday – to decide policy on oil production into 1Q 2024. Also, the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC – more commonly referred to as COP28 – begins Thursday in Dubai. But OPEC+ members are secretly using the conference to seal big oil and gas deals, a clear conflict of interest.

And the big news is the US is now producing more crude oil than ever—13.2 million barrels per day, per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), topping the pre-Covid peak of 13.1 million. That amount is nearly double the volume from a decade ago, making the US a net exporter of domestic crude.

Oil prices have slumped recently due to robust crude supplies, despite OPEC+ cuts in production and reduced Russian exports. In light of all this, we’ll take a look at the outlook for oil and gas prices into 2024.

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Your Retirement Savings

Beginning in 2023, the SECURE 2.0 Act raised the age that you must begin taking RMDs from age 72 to age 73 (it is now age 73 if born 1951-1959 and age 75 if born 1960 or later). If you reach age 72 in 2023, the required beginning date for your first RMD is April 1, 2025, for your first RMD in 2024. You will use the ending value of your IRA on 12/31/2023 for this calculation. The SECURE 2.0 Act changed some of the rules governing Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs). However, much remains the same. Here’s where things stand as of 2023.

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In Memory of Our Founder

It is with profound sadness that we announce the passing of our founder, Gary D. Halbert. After a prolonged illness, Gary departed this world on November 15, 2023 and now rests with his Heavenly Father.

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The Fed Talks Too Much

The Fed was a completely different animal in the 1970s. Notable bond trader Richard Stuttmeier wrote,

“It's a different world than in 1972. When I began my career as a bond trader at one of 12 primary dealers, Arthur Burns was the Fed chair. Fed policy at the time was much more direct, but considerably less transparent.

Policy changes were handled in secret, with tactics implemented through the Open Market Trading Desk of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which bought and sold securities through primary dealers to achieve the desired federal funds rate.

Rate decisions weren't announced publicly after each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, so traders had to pay attention to the market. When the Fed bought securities, it increased the amount of money in the banking system, which tended to bring the rate down. And vice versa.”

Think about that as compared to how vocal the Fed is today. I like to think of these past years as the Fed’s good old days.

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