Crime rates in the US have risen sharply in recent years. After falling consistently during the 1980s, 90s, 00s and 10s, the crime rate shot up in 2020 along with the onset of the Covid pandemic outbreak.

Researchers are not sure of the full cause of the increase in the crime rate, but most believe much of the reason goes back to the pandemic arrival in 2020 which unnecessarily lead to widespread school closures and business lockdowns. This put millions of teenagers and young people out of school and work with nothing productive to do.

In 2020, violent crimes surged in American cities, according to a 37-city study by the Council On Criminal Justice. This troubling trend continued in the pandemic's second year: murder, rape, and assault reports rose again in 2021.

The good news is, levels of nearly all offenses are lower, or have changed little, in the first six months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. The most notable exception is the large increase in motor vehicle theft.

As we head into the 4Q of 2023, it is helpful to look back at the forecasts and predictions I’ve made this year and make an assessment. In doing so, I realize that my best prediction for 2023 was not to jump on the bearish bandwagon.

If you recall, we came into 2023 with the vast majority of forecasters predicting a recession this year as the most likely scenario. As regular readers know, I never agreed a recession was the most likely case for the economy this year. In fact, I argued that a recession was NOT the most likely scenario. I expected the economy to expand this year, albeit at a slower rate of growth.

And that is exactly what we’ve seen. The US economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of just over 2% in the first half of this year – not great but still a solid performance. As I pointed out often, there were few signs that a recession would unfold in the last half of the year.

Today, we start with the latest Fed data on the economy which may surprise you. The economy as measured by GDP is on fire in the 3Q.

Following that, I’ll offer a few comments on this week’s Fed policy committee meeting. In short, no surprises are expected.

Next, I’ll delve into the fact that huge numbers of Americans want younger leaders in Washington. But this is not happening; our leadership in Washington is actually getting older; and I’ll explain why below. It’s a very interesting topic.

Finally, I’ll bring you the latest report on US household income. Despite a relatively strong US economy, household incomes have declined for the last three consecutive years. Obviously, this is not a good development.

According to researchers in the government, the Federal Reserve and other sources, Baby Boomers (my generation) are set to pass down the largest inheritance in history to their children and grandchildren over the next 20 years. In fact, it has already begun.

The researchers have identified at least $84 trillion in tangible assets that Boomers will be passing down to their heirs and charities over the next 20 years – by far the largest in any previous two decades.

If we add in other assets they will be handing down which don’t include tangible assets such as cash, real estate, stocks, bonds, etc., the total could approach $100 trillion.

Americans actually agree on something in this time of widespread political discord: President Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president for a second term.

This is according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research which found much of the public united in sizing up the one trait Biden cannot change: his age (currently 80 years old).

The president has taken to raising the age issue himself, and joking about it, as if trying to relax his audiences about his 80 trips around the sun.

Age discrimination may be banned in the workplace, but the president's employers – the American people – aren't shy about their bias.

In the poll, 77% said Biden is too old to be effective for four more years. Not only do 89% of Republicans say that, so did 69% of Democrats. This view is held across age groups, not just by young people.

In contrast, about half of US adults say former President Donald Trump, 77, is too old for the office, with Democrats far more likely to disqualify Trump by age than are Republicans.

What's clear from the poll is that Americans are saying “out with the old and in with the young,” or at least younger.

The US economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product had a decent first half of the year, with GDP increasing at an annual rate of 2.4% in the 1Q and 2.0% in the 2Q. Yet according to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed, the economy has soared higher so far in the 3Q.

The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow indicator is showing the economy has soared at a whopping annual rate of 5.8% so far in the 3Q. Frankly, that is hard to believe and it is far above most forecasters’ current estimates for GDP growth in the 3Q.

We all grew up amidst rather constant warnings that the world as we know it would come to an end in our lifetimes, due primarily to uncontrolled population growth. Perhaps the most controversial was Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book “Population Bomb” which predicted mass starvation by the end of the century. Many others were equally apocalyptic.

Of course, as we all know, these doomsday predictions have not come to pass. The world’s population has increased eightfold since 1800 – from under 1 billion to over 8 billion today, and yet standards of living have never been higher.

Despite increases in consumption, and contrary to the prophecies of generations of doomsayers, the world hasn’t run out of a single metal or mineral. In fact, resources have generally grown cheaper relative to income over the past two centuries. Even on the largest cosmic scale, resources may well be limitless.

Such a statement as the above might sound impossible, even reckless. But researchers are increasingly coming to this very conclusion – that Earth may never run out of natural resources and energy.

What follows is my summary of a very interesting article which ran in The Wall Street Journal in late July entitled: “We Will Never Run Out of Resources.” The authors argue that while the supply of natural resources is theoretically finite, human knowledge and creativity are limitless.

We just topped another troubling consumer debt milestone last month according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed reported that outstanding credit card debt topped $1 trillion in July for the first time in US history.

The Fed reported that in the second quarter of this year, outstanding credit card balances rose by $45 billion to $1.03 trillion for the first time ever, reflecting robust consumer spending as well as higher prices due to inflation.

Polls consistently show that increasing numbers of likely voters now distrust the mainstream media. I’ve written about this trend more than once this year, but the bad news for the media just continues to pile up, as I’ll discuss today. Distrust of the mainstream media continues to rise among American adults, especially likely voters.

Personally, I consider this to be good news. It’s about time the public woke up to the fact that the mainstream media has been misleading us for years. With trust in freefall, the media is panicked and desperate for something to turn this trend around. Unfortunately for them, I think it’s too late. The voting public’s mind appears to be made up.

Today, we’ll look at the latest numbers showing Americans’ trust in the media has plunged to all-time record lows this year. Specifically, we’ll look at the latest GALLUP poll which found that a record number of adults have NO trust in the mass media whatsoever.

Fortunately, I have some really good news to report today. We’ll look at the latest numbers showing voter turnout among young people, those in their 20s and 30s, has surged in recent elections. While young people, especially those voting for the first time, lean heavily toward the Democratic Party initially, it is very encouraging to see their participation increasing significantly.

Before we get to those discussions, I have some comments on why I believe the 2024 presidential election will be one of the most interesting in many years. You may agree or disagree, but I’ll give you my thoughts. Let’s get started.

Let me say at the onset that economic and market forecasters don’t have the greatest track record to begin with. It is not unusual to see their forecasts out of step with what actually happens in the real world. But there’s usually also a contingent that gets it right.

Not this time, apparently. Virtually all the well-known forecasters predicted a recession in 2023. I read a lot of forecasts and not one I saw predicted the economy would grow above 2% in the first half of 2023 as it has, and virtually every one forecast a recession in the second half of this year, with many signaling a serious contraction.

I don’t remember a time when such a broad swath of forecasters were this bearish. I’ve been writing about it all year, while also making it clear that I didn’t share these overly negative views. Regular readers know I have consistently maintained that a recession is not the most likely scenario for this year.