It is with profound sadness that we announce the passing of our founder, Gary D. Halbert. After a prolonged illness, Gary departed this world on November 15, 2023 and now rests with his Heavenly Father.

The Fed was a completely different animal in the 1970s. Notable bond trader Richard Stuttmeier wrote,

“It's a different world than in 1972. When I began my career as a bond trader at one of 12 primary dealers, Arthur Burns was the Fed chair. Fed policy at the time was much more direct, but considerably less transparent.

Policy changes were handled in secret, with tactics implemented through the Open Market Trading Desk of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which bought and sold securities through primary dealers to achieve the desired federal funds rate.

Rate decisions weren't announced publicly after each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, so traders had to pay attention to the market. When the Fed bought securities, it increased the amount of money in the banking system, which tended to bring the rate down. And vice versa.”

Think about that as compared to how vocal the Fed is today. I like to think of these past years as the Fed’s good old days.

I’m taking some time off to recover and get my legs back under me. Until then, I’m working with my staff to select the topics and write the economic news you have come to enjoy in my Forecasts & Trends E-Letter. Every week they have been instrumental in helping me choose topics and think through the analysis I write.

As always, I like to keep my readers informed on important federal policy decisions that will directly affect them. In the first several months of his presidency, Joe Biden signed an executive order encouraging the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to reinstate net neutrality rules repealed during the Trump administration in 2017.

On October 19, the Democrat-controlled FCC voted to advance a proposal to again impose net neutrality rules and assume new regulatory oversight of broadband Internet. Since most of our lives increasingly revolve around the Internet, this move potentially affects our free and open use of broadband networks.

So this week I depart from our usual investment themes and tell you what I believe is one of the greatest gifts you can ever give your children, grandchildren or others who are dear to you (or maybe even yourself).

The Consumer Price Index which soared to near 10% in 2022 has since receded to 3.7% for the 12 months ended August. That’s a major drop, of course, but the CPI still remains well above the Fed’s stated target of 2%.

The question remains whether the Federal Reserve should continue to hike its short-term lending rate from 5.25-5.50% where it currently stands, or if the Fed should remain on “pause” at its next two policy meetings on November 1 and December 13?

Crime rates in the US have risen sharply in recent years. After falling consistently during the 1980s, 90s, 00s and 10s, the crime rate shot up in 2020 along with the onset of the Covid pandemic outbreak.

Researchers are not sure of the full cause of the increase in the crime rate, but most believe much of the reason goes back to the pandemic arrival in 2020 which unnecessarily lead to widespread school closures and business lockdowns. This put millions of teenagers and young people out of school and work with nothing productive to do.

In 2020, violent crimes surged in American cities, according to a 37-city study by the Council On Criminal Justice. This troubling trend continued in the pandemic's second year: murder, rape, and assault reports rose again in 2021.

The good news is, levels of nearly all offenses are lower, or have changed little, in the first six months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. The most notable exception is the large increase in motor vehicle theft.

As we head into the 4Q of 2023, it is helpful to look back at the forecasts and predictions I’ve made this year and make an assessment. In doing so, I realize that my best prediction for 2023 was not to jump on the bearish bandwagon.

If you recall, we came into 2023 with the vast majority of forecasters predicting a recession this year as the most likely scenario. As regular readers know, I never agreed a recession was the most likely case for the economy this year. In fact, I argued that a recession was NOT the most likely scenario. I expected the economy to expand this year, albeit at a slower rate of growth.

And that is exactly what we’ve seen. The US economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of just over 2% in the first half of this year – not great but still a solid performance. As I pointed out often, there were few signs that a recession would unfold in the last half of the year.

Today, we start with the latest Fed data on the economy which may surprise you. The economy as measured by GDP is on fire in the 3Q.

Following that, I’ll offer a few comments on this week’s Fed policy committee meeting. In short, no surprises are expected.

Next, I’ll delve into the fact that huge numbers of Americans want younger leaders in Washington. But this is not happening; our leadership in Washington is actually getting older; and I’ll explain why below. It’s a very interesting topic.

Finally, I’ll bring you the latest report on US household income. Despite a relatively strong US economy, household incomes have declined for the last three consecutive years. Obviously, this is not a good development.

According to researchers in the government, the Federal Reserve and other sources, Baby Boomers (my generation) are set to pass down the largest inheritance in history to their children and grandchildren over the next 20 years. In fact, it has already begun.

The researchers have identified at least $84 trillion in tangible assets that Boomers will be passing down to their heirs and charities over the next 20 years – by far the largest in any previous two decades.

If we add in other assets they will be handing down which don’t include tangible assets such as cash, real estate, stocks, bonds, etc., the total could approach $100 trillion.