You may already be retired, so you might not think this article is for you. You already have your investment plan in place and what could go wrong anyway. Well politicians change, policies change, laws change, social norms change and the economy changes.  Your health also changes. In my life getting older hasn’t been the problem, it is the side effects. For those not retired yet, hopefully these topics will help you in planning your retirement.

From Investopedia, “Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every year. Seasonality can affect different aspects of a business or economy based on the seasons, such as consumer spending, inventories, staffing and growth.”

That’s a bit dry, even for me. Another way to think of seasonality is that there are some months that are better for investment returns than others. Seasonality is present in individual stocks, sectors, sub-sectors and the broader markets. Each may have similar or wildly different seasonality characteristics. For this discussion I am focusing on the S&P 500 (SPX) over the last four market cycles. A market cycle is a five-year period. Seasonality data is available going back decades.

This is definitely the week for news on fossil fuels production. OPEC+ members meet this week – delayed until this Thursday – to decide policy on oil production into 1Q 2024. Also, the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC – more commonly referred to as COP28 – begins Thursday in Dubai. But OPEC+ members are secretly using the conference to seal big oil and gas deals, a clear conflict of interest.

And the big news is the US is now producing more crude oil than ever—13.2 million barrels per day, per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), topping the pre-Covid peak of 13.1 million. That amount is nearly double the volume from a decade ago, making the US a net exporter of domestic crude.

Oil prices have slumped recently due to robust crude supplies, despite OPEC+ cuts in production and reduced Russian exports. In light of all this, we’ll take a look at the outlook for oil and gas prices into 2024.

Beginning in 2023, the SECURE 2.0 Act raised the age that you must begin taking RMDs from age 72 to age 73 (it is now age 73 if born 1951-1959 and age 75 if born 1960 or later). If you reach age 72 in 2023, the required beginning date for your first RMD is April 1, 2025, for your first RMD in 2024. You will use the ending value of your IRA on 12/31/2023 for this calculation. The SECURE 2.0 Act changed some of the rules governing Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs). However, much remains the same. Here’s where things stand as of 2023.

It is with profound sadness that we announce the passing of our founder, Gary D. Halbert. After a prolonged illness, Gary departed this world on November 15, 2023 and now rests with his Heavenly Father.

The Fed was a completely different animal in the 1970s. Notable bond trader Richard Stuttmeier wrote,

“It's a different world than in 1972. When I began my career as a bond trader at one of 12 primary dealers, Arthur Burns was the Fed chair. Fed policy at the time was much more direct, but considerably less transparent.

Policy changes were handled in secret, with tactics implemented through the Open Market Trading Desk of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which bought and sold securities through primary dealers to achieve the desired federal funds rate.

Rate decisions weren't announced publicly after each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, so traders had to pay attention to the market. When the Fed bought securities, it increased the amount of money in the banking system, which tended to bring the rate down. And vice versa.”

Think about that as compared to how vocal the Fed is today. I like to think of these past years as the Fed’s good old days.

I’m taking some time off to recover and get my legs back under me. Until then, I’m working with my staff to select the topics and write the economic news you have come to enjoy in my Forecasts & Trends E-Letter. Every week they have been instrumental in helping me choose topics and think through the analysis I write.

As always, I like to keep my readers informed on important federal policy decisions that will directly affect them. In the first several months of his presidency, Joe Biden signed an executive order encouraging the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to reinstate net neutrality rules repealed during the Trump administration in 2017.

On October 19, the Democrat-controlled FCC voted to advance a proposal to again impose net neutrality rules and assume new regulatory oversight of broadband Internet. Since most of our lives increasingly revolve around the Internet, this move potentially affects our free and open use of broadband networks.

So this week I depart from our usual investment themes and tell you what I believe is one of the greatest gifts you can ever give your children, grandchildren or others who are dear to you (or maybe even yourself).

The Consumer Price Index which soared to near 10% in 2022 has since receded to 3.7% for the 12 months ended August. That’s a major drop, of course, but the CPI still remains well above the Fed’s stated target of 2%.

The question remains whether the Federal Reserve should continue to hike its short-term lending rate from 5.25-5.50% where it currently stands, or if the Fed should remain on “pause” at its next two policy meetings on November 1 and December 13?