Market commentators can be heard warning of a concerted effort to “de-dollarize” the global economy. They point to the dollar’s declining usage in world trade and as a central bank reserve currency.

But is this reality or just a hyped-up myth? Today we examine why the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency and why it will not be deposed from its top spot anytime soon.

The latest data on the fight against inflation arrived last Friday in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. We’ll take a quick look at those numbers, then follow with a guess of when the Fed will begin to cut interest rates.

Then on to economic concerns as they affect the U.S. presidential election. Finally, we’ll take a closer look at what could happen to the markets once rate cuts begin.

Let’s get started.

As a follow up to my previous article about the importance of Cybersecurity Awareness, let’s look at investment fraud committed against seniors. After completing a couple of continuing education courses on the subject, I became very aware of how rampant investment fraud has become.

Since I am also a senior, it honestly scared the heck out of me. It amazes me that there are people with no moral compass who are committing this fraud. It also saddens me that good people will fall for their scams. You should be on the alert for investment fraud, crypto scams and romance scams.

Folks, this problem is serious! Remember, if it is too good to be true, run from it!

For context, a yield curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between interest rates and bond yields of differing maturities. It illustrates the yield an investor can expect to earn on their money for a given period of time. The graph displays a bond’s yield on the vertical axis and the time to maturity across the horizontal axis.

Currently when you hear or read “The Yield Curve” it is referencing the relationship between the 10-year and two-year treasuries. Currently the relationship is inverted. That means that the yield on the 10-year instrument is less than the yield on the two-year instrument. This is not the “normal” relationship but is by no means unusual.  

I was tempted to write about the stunning May jobs report released last Friday. US employers added 272,000 nonfarm jobs in May, exceeding economist estimates of 190,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the highest jobless level since January 2022. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged from April's 3.9%. 

The Federal Reserve meets this week, but don’t look for movement in the fed funds rate. These data again lower the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until late 2024.

Instead let’s turn to the presidential election. Not the U.S. election, but the election that just concluded in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum (pron. SHANE-bowm) was elected in a landslide as the new president, and is the first female Mexican president.

We’ll meet the new president and take a look at the challenges ahead for her administration, policy towards the United States and the “nearshoring” of foreign companies in Mexico.

More and more people are asking us if a Roth IRA conversion is right for them. There are many considerations to understand, so today let’s take a look at what a Roth IRA conversion entails, the pluses and minuses of converting and some of the rules you need to know.

Please remember that the following is not specific advice on Roth IRA conversions but general information. Be sure to talk with your tax accountant and investment advisor before making a decision to convert.

Copper surrounds us, permeates us, it binds our world together. Ok, that may be over stating this a bit. But copper is in almost everything. Copper is, in fact, so ubiquitous that I will stick to three of its major uses on a global basis. Copper is used mostly for industrial and domestic electrical wiring as well as HVAC systems and plumbing, electronic and telecommunications devices of all types in the form of semiconductors and other components, and in the production of vehicles both electric and traditional.

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly jobs report, called the Employment Situation Summary. Most financial news outlets published the unemployment rate reported in it, which at 3.9% has changed little over the last year. Great news, right?

But buried in the report is a statistic that has been overlooked in the mainstream media. Actual wage growth has decreased over the last two years. In fact, inflation has been outpacing wages, with the gap between the two widest in the third quarter of 2022.

The question of course is why. We’ll look today at a major reason behind the wage/inflation gap: rampant illegal immigration.

Get used to hearing the term stagflation because this word is going to get thrown around a lot in the financial press. At Jerome Powell’s press conference on May 1, 2024, Powell downplayed concerns that the economy may be sliding into a period of "stagflation," which is marked by slow growth and stubbornly high inflation. Powell noted he was "around" for such a period in the 1970s and he dismissed any similarities in today's economy.

"I don't see the 'stag' or the 'flation,'" he said.

But are Powell and some economists too quick to downplay the chance of that the U.S. will experience slowing economic momentum with sticky inflation? We’ll take a look at that possibility today, followed by a warning to be wary of scams targeting seniors.

The US does not have a Federal zero emission policy, but many other countries do. There are several states that have such policies, however, the most notable of which is California. California’s Zero Emission Vehicle program mandates that 100% of vehicles sold in CA be emission free by 2035. NJ, RI and WA have adopted very similar policies and CT, MD, MA, NY and VT have adopted CA’s emission standards which are the most stringent in the country.

With all these states leaning hard into zero emissions and electric vehicle (EV) mandates that embrace EVs as the answer to the perceived climate threats, the questions need to be asked. Do EVs really provide a smaller environmental impact than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? Are they a solution or a virtue signal? In short, are EVs a scam?