For context, a yield curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between interest rates and bond yields of differing maturities. It illustrates the yield an investor can expect to earn on their money for a given period of time. The graph displays a bond’s yield on the vertical axis and the time to maturity across the horizontal axis.

Currently when you hear or read “The Yield Curve” it is referencing the relationship between the 10-year and two-year treasuries. Currently the relationship is inverted. That means that the yield on the 10-year instrument is less than the yield on the two-year instrument. This is not the “normal” relationship but is by no means unusual.  

I was tempted to write about the stunning May jobs report released last Friday. US employers added 272,000 nonfarm jobs in May, exceeding economist estimates of 190,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the highest jobless level since January 2022. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged from April's 3.9%. 

The Federal Reserve meets this week, but don’t look for movement in the fed funds rate. These data again lower the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until late 2024.

Instead let’s turn to the presidential election. Not the U.S. election, but the election that just concluded in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum (pron. SHANE-bowm) was elected in a landslide as the new president, and is the first female Mexican president.

We’ll meet the new president and take a look at the challenges ahead for her administration, policy towards the United States and the “nearshoring” of foreign companies in Mexico.

More and more people are asking us if a Roth IRA conversion is right for them. There are many considerations to understand, so today let’s take a look at what a Roth IRA conversion entails, the pluses and minuses of converting and some of the rules you need to know.

Please remember that the following is not specific advice on Roth IRA conversions but general information. Be sure to talk with your tax accountant and investment advisor before making a decision to convert.

Copper surrounds us, permeates us, it binds our world together. Ok, that may be over stating this a bit. But copper is in almost everything. Copper is, in fact, so ubiquitous that I will stick to three of its major uses on a global basis. Copper is used mostly for industrial and domestic electrical wiring as well as HVAC systems and plumbing, electronic and telecommunications devices of all types in the form of semiconductors and other components, and in the production of vehicles both electric and traditional.

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly jobs report, called the Employment Situation Summary. Most financial news outlets published the unemployment rate reported in it, which at 3.9% has changed little over the last year. Great news, right?

But buried in the report is a statistic that has been overlooked in the mainstream media. Actual wage growth has decreased over the last two years. In fact, inflation has been outpacing wages, with the gap between the two widest in the third quarter of 2022.

The question of course is why. We’ll look today at a major reason behind the wage/inflation gap: rampant illegal immigration.

Get used to hearing the term stagflation because this word is going to get thrown around a lot in the financial press. At Jerome Powell’s press conference on May 1, 2024, Powell downplayed concerns that the economy may be sliding into a period of "stagflation," which is marked by slow growth and stubbornly high inflation. Powell noted he was "around" for such a period in the 1970s and he dismissed any similarities in today's economy.

"I don't see the 'stag' or the 'flation,'" he said.

But are Powell and some economists too quick to downplay the chance of that the U.S. will experience slowing economic momentum with sticky inflation? We’ll take a look at that possibility today, followed by a warning to be wary of scams targeting seniors.

The US does not have a Federal zero emission policy, but many other countries do. There are several states that have such policies, however, the most notable of which is California. California’s Zero Emission Vehicle program mandates that 100% of vehicles sold in CA be emission free by 2035. NJ, RI and WA have adopted very similar policies and CT, MD, MA, NY and VT have adopted CA’s emission standards which are the most stringent in the country.

With all these states leaning hard into zero emissions and electric vehicle (EV) mandates that embrace EVs as the answer to the perceived climate threats, the questions need to be asked. Do EVs really provide a smaller environmental impact than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? Are they a solution or a virtue signal? In short, are EVs a scam?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week, so we first take a quick look at the latest inflation data and guess whether the members vote for an interest rate cut anytime soon. But more interesting will be a discussion that asks if the price of gold now follows tech stocks. I think the data will surprise you.

2024 is a presidential election year, which means some very familiar economic topics are forefront in the news. Three big topics usually debated are inflation, rising Federal debt and the insolvency of Social Security. The Social Security Administration has estimated that the Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted in 2033. Does this mean Social Security will be bankrupt or in default?

We’ll take a look at that and what rising U.S. Treasury yields may be telling us in that regard. Finally, I’ll share some advice on how to plan for the next stock market correction. We may be headed toward one in the near future, so it’s best to plan for it now.

Today’s newsletter is intended to provide a basic understanding of cryptocurrencies; my explanations and examples are by no means exhaustive as this is a complex subject. In the interest of full disclosure, I am what is known as a crypto skeptic, meaning I do not believe that there is long term viability for cryptocurrencies.