Copper surrounds us, permeates us, it binds our world together. Ok, that may be over stating this a bit. But copper is in almost everything. Copper is, in fact, so ubiquitous that I will stick to three of its major uses on a global basis. Copper is used mostly for industrial and domestic electrical wiring as well as HVAC systems and plumbing, electronic and telecommunications devices of all types in the form of semiconductors and other components, and in the production of vehicles both electric and traditional.

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly jobs report, called the Employment Situation Summary. Most financial news outlets published the unemployment rate reported in it, which at 3.9% has changed little over the last year. Great news, right?

But buried in the report is a statistic that has been overlooked in the mainstream media. Actual wage growth has decreased over the last two years. In fact, inflation has been outpacing wages, with the gap between the two widest in the third quarter of 2022.

The question of course is why. We’ll look today at a major reason behind the wage/inflation gap: rampant illegal immigration.

Get used to hearing the term stagflation because this word is going to get thrown around a lot in the financial press. At Jerome Powell’s press conference on May 1, 2024, Powell downplayed concerns that the economy may be sliding into a period of "stagflation," which is marked by slow growth and stubbornly high inflation. Powell noted he was "around" for such a period in the 1970s and he dismissed any similarities in today's economy.

"I don't see the 'stag' or the 'flation,'" he said.

But are Powell and some economists too quick to downplay the chance of that the U.S. will experience slowing economic momentum with sticky inflation? We’ll take a look at that possibility today, followed by a warning to be wary of scams targeting seniors.

The US does not have a Federal zero emission policy, but many other countries do. There are several states that have such policies, however, the most notable of which is California. California’s Zero Emission Vehicle program mandates that 100% of vehicles sold in CA be emission free by 2035. NJ, RI and WA have adopted very similar policies and CT, MD, MA, NY and VT have adopted CA’s emission standards which are the most stringent in the country.

With all these states leaning hard into zero emissions and electric vehicle (EV) mandates that embrace EVs as the answer to the perceived climate threats, the questions need to be asked. Do EVs really provide a smaller environmental impact than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? Are they a solution or a virtue signal? In short, are EVs a scam?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week, so we first take a quick look at the latest inflation data and guess whether the members vote for an interest rate cut anytime soon. But more interesting will be a discussion that asks if the price of gold now follows tech stocks. I think the data will surprise you.

2024 is a presidential election year, which means some very familiar economic topics are forefront in the news. Three big topics usually debated are inflation, rising Federal debt and the insolvency of Social Security. The Social Security Administration has estimated that the Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted in 2033. Does this mean Social Security will be bankrupt or in default?

We’ll take a look at that and what rising U.S. Treasury yields may be telling us in that regard. Finally, I’ll share some advice on how to plan for the next stock market correction. We may be headed toward one in the near future, so it’s best to plan for it now.

Today’s newsletter is intended to provide a basic understanding of cryptocurrencies; my explanations and examples are by no means exhaustive as this is a complex subject. In the interest of full disclosure, I am what is known as a crypto skeptic, meaning I do not believe that there is long term viability for cryptocurrencies.

The Federal Reserve has two mandates: achieving maximum employment and keeping prices stable. It does this by controlling the money supply and raising or lowering interest rates. The Fed’s fight against inflation has been a common topic in financial news for several months, but not as much coverage has been given to the job market. The economy as a whole has remained robust in this high inflation environment, which has kept unemployment comparatively low.

I thought it might be interesting to look at a little-known recession indicator the Fed uses that is entirely based on unemployment numbers. It’s called the Sahm Rule and we’ll take a look today at whether it is signaling recession.

But before we start on that discussion, let’s take a quick look at the Personal Consumption Expenditures index as reported last week and if it has caused Jerome Powell to change his narrative regarding upcoming interest rate cuts by the Fed.

I hope you aren’t getting nervous by all the chatter about the “Market” at an all-time high. When I started in this business after retiring from the U.S. Army way back in July 1994, the market indexes were a bit lower. The Dow Jones was at 3,764.50, the S&P 500 was at 458.26, and the Nasdaq Composite was at 722.16.

I have learned that the solution to all-time highs was more all-time highs. There have been a few bear markets along the way, but here we are today. I also learned that what the market was doing on any given day didn’t matter unless I needed my money at the time for income or some major expense.

It isn’t your imagination. Virtually everything costs more than it did three years ago. And with inflation stubborn at about 5%, wages have failed to keep up. Add in decades high interest rates and the average consumer is weaving around like a punch-drunk boxer on his way toward the canvas.

It turns out that shutting down the economy for a year and then spending borrowed trillions to keep it all from sliding into the toilet is economically sub-optimal. What are the odds? A course of action so ill-conceived and poorly implemented that it required the full political prowess of two administrations and both parties.