Last Friday at the close of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was time for the Fed to make a major shift in policy.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Recent economic data have shown that since 2022, the inflation rate has fallen from a 40-year high almost back to pre-Covid levels. At the same time, the unemployment rate has steadily risen, fueling worries that the economy could enter a recession if interest rates stay high.

Major market indexes welcomed the news with moves upward. There are many on Wall Street who are ready to price in interest cuts of up to 0.75% by the end of 2024.

But one analyst believes the Federal Reserve will cut rates by up to 2% in the coming months. We’ll take a look at his reasoning and make our own prediction of how quickly the Fed will move.

Most people recognize the necessity of investing for long-term financial security. Whether you are a passive index investor, an active trader or use professional third parties to manage your assets, one thing is true. Given enough time in the markets you will experience at least one major crash.

These extreme market events have had many different names over the centuries, yes centuries. From manias to panics, from crisis to crash, these high volatility dislocations share some commonality.

Recently, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool that predicts the odds of a Fed interest rate cut has had more ups and downs than an Olympic trampoline gymnast. Recent economic reports have spurred calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates big and now. We first take a quick look at why and see that the panic is probably unfounded.

Finally, a very promising development in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. Researchers report that a new blood test can diagnose this devastating condition with the same accuracy as much more invasive and expensive techniques. This could be a real breakthrough in its early detection and treatment.

I am very sure that readers of Forecasts & Trends are as diligent as I am in following the news. We hear every day about how expensive groceries, energy and housing have become. But for those of us who are empty nesters or with just a 1- or 2-person household, our family expenses have already been reduced as we approach retirement.

Even if we have paid off our primary residence and don’t drive as much, there’s an expense that has hit us particularly hard in the last year – insurance.

I am sure you have noticed that insuring your car and home has gotten horribly expensive. We will explore this today and give you a few ideas on how to reduce those costs.

The costs of hosting an Olympics are, in a word, extreme. To begin with, cities enter a bidding process with the International Olympic Committee (IOC). The bidding process alone can run into the billions. And of course, success is not guaranteed. Following a lengthy evaluation process, the IOC selects the host city generally six to eight years out from its games host date.

This week we review the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile for First Quarter 2024. The report gives readers a peek at the health of U.S. banks and financial institutions. Besides an analysis of industry earnings, deposits and asset yields, the report displays troublesome trends in FDIC-insured banks, especially in the areas of credit card debt and commercial property loans.

These trends could put serious pressure on regional and community bank balance sheets, causing increased attention by the FDIC. But will banking regulators see a potential problem in time before that institution fails? Those who study the banking industry have their doubts.

Today our focus is on your retirement dollars. I hope to clear up the biggest myth about Social Security, inform you about protections for your retirement accounts and whether you should max out your 401k.

Market commentators can be heard warning of a concerted effort to “de-dollarize” the global economy. They point to the dollar’s declining usage in world trade and as a central bank reserve currency.

But is this reality or just a hyped-up myth? Today we examine why the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency and why it will not be deposed from its top spot anytime soon.

The latest data on the fight against inflation arrived last Friday in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. We’ll take a quick look at those numbers, then follow with a guess of when the Fed will begin to cut interest rates.

Then on to economic concerns as they affect the U.S. presidential election. Finally, we’ll take a closer look at what could happen to the markets once rate cuts begin.

Let’s get started.

As a follow up to my previous article about the importance of Cybersecurity Awareness, let’s look at investment fraud committed against seniors. After completing a couple of continuing education courses on the subject, I became very aware of how rampant investment fraud has become.

Since I am also a senior, it honestly scared the heck out of me. It amazes me that there are people with no moral compass who are committing this fraud. It also saddens me that good people will fall for their scams. You should be on the alert for investment fraud, crypto scams and romance scams.

Folks, this problem is serious! Remember, if it is too good to be true, run from it!