For context, a yield curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between interest rates and bond yields of differing maturities. It illustrates the yield an investor can expect to earn on their money for a given period of time. The graph displays a bond’s yield on the vertical axis and the time to maturity across the horizontal axis.

Currently when you hear or read “The Yield Curve” it is referencing the relationship between the 10-year and two-year treasuries. Currently the relationship is inverted. That means that the yield on the 10-year instrument is less than the yield on the two-year instrument. This is not the “normal” relationship but is by no means unusual.  

Copper surrounds us, permeates us, it binds our world together. Ok, that may be over stating this a bit. But copper is in almost everything. Copper is, in fact, so ubiquitous that I will stick to three of its major uses on a global basis. Copper is used mostly for industrial and domestic electrical wiring as well as HVAC systems and plumbing, electronic and telecommunications devices of all types in the form of semiconductors and other components, and in the production of vehicles both electric and traditional.

The US does not have a Federal zero emission policy, but many other countries do. There are several states that have such policies, however, the most notable of which is California. California’s Zero Emission Vehicle program mandates that 100% of vehicles sold in CA be emission free by 2035. NJ, RI and WA have adopted very similar policies and CT, MD, MA, NY and VT have adopted CA’s emission standards which are the most stringent in the country.

With all these states leaning hard into zero emissions and electric vehicle (EV) mandates that embrace EVs as the answer to the perceived climate threats, the questions need to be asked. Do EVs really provide a smaller environmental impact than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? Are they a solution or a virtue signal? In short, are EVs a scam?

Today’s newsletter is intended to provide a basic understanding of cryptocurrencies; my explanations and examples are by no means exhaustive as this is a complex subject. In the interest of full disclosure, I am what is known as a crypto skeptic, meaning I do not believe that there is long term viability for cryptocurrencies.

It isn’t your imagination. Virtually everything costs more than it did three years ago. And with inflation stubborn at about 5%, wages have failed to keep up. Add in decades high interest rates and the average consumer is weaving around like a punch-drunk boxer on his way toward the canvas.

It turns out that shutting down the economy for a year and then spending borrowed trillions to keep it all from sliding into the toilet is economically sub-optimal. What are the odds? A course of action so ill-conceived and poorly implemented that it required the full political prowess of two administrations and both parties.

Have you heard of Rare Earth Elements? It wouldn’t surprise me if you hadn’t. But they are a vital part of the modern industrial supply chain and are critical components in many modern necessities.

Before we start a discussion into what seems like science fiction made real, let’s look into the past. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a term that was coined by John McCarthy, a legendary American computer and cognitive scientist, in the 1950s. He is widely regarded as one of the "founding fathers" of AI. Alongside other luminaries like Alan Turing, Marvin Minsky, Allen Newell, and Herbert A. Simon, McCarthy played a pivotal role in shaping the field.

McCarthy, a Stanford professor and Turing Award recipient, developed the programming languages known as LISP and ALGOL. LISP was pivotal in AI development and research while ALGOL popularized the concept of time-sharing in computing, allowing multiple users to interact with a computer at the same time – a key concept for those that would expand McCarthy’s work in the decades to come.

Outside of financial reporting, articles on inflation rates usually quote the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. But financial writers in-the-know will reference “the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation,” the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE. Today we’ll take a look at the two measures of inflation, how they are determined and why the Federal Reserve prefers one over the other.

But before we dive in, let’s take a look at some of the economic news released last week. Punxsutawney Phil, the famous weather-casting groundhog, didn’t see his shadow last Friday, and so predicted an early spring. Let’s see if the economy looks as rosy.

I have been in the investment business for 28 years. This will mark my seventh Presidential election cycle over that period. Without fail, clients have questions and concerns about market performance during each presidential election cycle.  It is a common question and I always give the same answer – it varies but in general performance is pretty good.

I know we have been writing a lot about the Federal Reserve lately. Like it or not, the Fed is the single most influential financial entity on the planet. Period. No other central bank comes close to the sheer scope and global impact of the Fed. What they do and how they do it shapes virtually all global financial markets.

Of the tools the Fed has at its disposal, the most esoteric (and that is saying something) and most stimulative, is the balance sheet. But what is it?