When you think of stock or commodity market trading you probably picture large crowds of traders shouting and gesturing at each other. That was known as the open outcry system. It is still what I picture and was the norm when I got into this business 30 years ago. Open outcry has been on the decline for 15 years and is now dead as disco. The evolution of electronic trading roughly follows the course below.

Most people recognize the necessity of investing for long-term financial security. Whether you are a passive index investor, an active trader or use professional third parties to manage your assets, one thing is true. Given enough time in the markets you will experience at least one major crash.

These extreme market events have had many different names over the centuries, yes centuries. From manias to panics, from crisis to crash, these high volatility dislocations share some commonality.

The costs of hosting an Olympics are, in a word, extreme. To begin with, cities enter a bidding process with the International Olympic Committee (IOC). The bidding process alone can run into the billions. And of course, success is not guaranteed. Following a lengthy evaluation process, the IOC selects the host city generally six to eight years out from its games host date.

Market commentators can be heard warning of a concerted effort to “de-dollarize” the global economy. They point to the dollar’s declining usage in world trade and as a central bank reserve currency.

But is this reality or just a hyped-up myth? Today we examine why the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency and why it will not be deposed from its top spot anytime soon.

For context, a yield curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between interest rates and bond yields of differing maturities. It illustrates the yield an investor can expect to earn on their money for a given period of time. The graph displays a bond’s yield on the vertical axis and the time to maturity across the horizontal axis.

Currently when you hear or read “The Yield Curve” it is referencing the relationship between the 10-year and two-year treasuries. Currently the relationship is inverted. That means that the yield on the 10-year instrument is less than the yield on the two-year instrument. This is not the “normal” relationship but is by no means unusual.  

Copper surrounds us, permeates us, it binds our world together. Ok, that may be over stating this a bit. But copper is in almost everything. Copper is, in fact, so ubiquitous that I will stick to three of its major uses on a global basis. Copper is used mostly for industrial and domestic electrical wiring as well as HVAC systems and plumbing, electronic and telecommunications devices of all types in the form of semiconductors and other components, and in the production of vehicles both electric and traditional.

The US does not have a Federal zero emission policy, but many other countries do. There are several states that have such policies, however, the most notable of which is California. California’s Zero Emission Vehicle program mandates that 100% of vehicles sold in CA be emission free by 2035. NJ, RI and WA have adopted very similar policies and CT, MD, MA, NY and VT have adopted CA’s emission standards which are the most stringent in the country.

With all these states leaning hard into zero emissions and electric vehicle (EV) mandates that embrace EVs as the answer to the perceived climate threats, the questions need to be asked. Do EVs really provide a smaller environmental impact than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? Are they a solution or a virtue signal? In short, are EVs a scam?

Today’s newsletter is intended to provide a basic understanding of cryptocurrencies; my explanations and examples are by no means exhaustive as this is a complex subject. In the interest of full disclosure, I am what is known as a crypto skeptic, meaning I do not believe that there is long term viability for cryptocurrencies.

It isn’t your imagination. Virtually everything costs more than it did three years ago. And with inflation stubborn at about 5%, wages have failed to keep up. Add in decades high interest rates and the average consumer is weaving around like a punch-drunk boxer on his way toward the canvas.

It turns out that shutting down the economy for a year and then spending borrowed trillions to keep it all from sliding into the toilet is economically sub-optimal. What are the odds? A course of action so ill-conceived and poorly implemented that it required the full political prowess of two administrations and both parties.

Have you heard of Rare Earth Elements? It wouldn’t surprise me if you hadn’t. But they are a vital part of the modern industrial supply chain and are critical components in many modern necessities.