I’m taking some time off to recover and get my legs back under me. Until then, I’m working with my staff to select the topics and write the economic news you have come to enjoy in my Forecasts & Trends E-Letter. Every week they have been instrumental in helping me choose topics and think through the analysis I write.

As always, I like to keep my readers informed on important federal policy decisions that will directly affect them. In the first several months of his presidency, Joe Biden signed an executive order encouraging the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to reinstate net neutrality rules repealed during the Trump administration in 2017.

On October 19, the Democrat-controlled FCC voted to advance a proposal to again impose net neutrality rules and assume new regulatory oversight of broadband Internet. Since most of our lives increasingly revolve around the Internet, this move potentially affects our free and open use of broadband networks.

So this week I depart from our usual investment themes and tell you what I believe is one of the greatest gifts you can ever give your children, grandchildren or others who are dear to you (or maybe even yourself).

The Consumer Price Index which soared to near 10% in 2022 has since receded to 3.7% for the 12 months ended August. That’s a major drop, of course, but the CPI still remains well above the Fed’s stated target of 2%.

The question remains whether the Federal Reserve should continue to hike its short-term lending rate from 5.25-5.50% where it currently stands, or if the Fed should remain on “pause” at its next two policy meetings on November 1 and December 13?

Crime rates in the US have risen sharply in recent years. After falling consistently during the 1980s, 90s, 00s and 10s, the crime rate shot up in 2020 along with the onset of the Covid pandemic outbreak.

Researchers are not sure of the full cause of the increase in the crime rate, but most believe much of the reason goes back to the pandemic arrival in 2020 which unnecessarily lead to widespread school closures and business lockdowns. This put millions of teenagers and young people out of school and work with nothing productive to do.

In 2020, violent crimes surged in American cities, according to a 37-city study by the Council On Criminal Justice. This troubling trend continued in the pandemic's second year: murder, rape, and assault reports rose again in 2021.

The good news is, levels of nearly all offenses are lower, or have changed little, in the first six months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. The most notable exception is the large increase in motor vehicle theft.

As we head into the 4Q of 2023, it is helpful to look back at the forecasts and predictions I’ve made this year and make an assessment. In doing so, I realize that my best prediction for 2023 was not to jump on the bearish bandwagon.

If you recall, we came into 2023 with the vast majority of forecasters predicting a recession this year as the most likely scenario. As regular readers know, I never agreed a recession was the most likely case for the economy this year. In fact, I argued that a recession was NOT the most likely scenario. I expected the economy to expand this year, albeit at a slower rate of growth.

And that is exactly what we’ve seen. The US economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of just over 2% in the first half of this year – not great but still a solid performance. As I pointed out often, there were few signs that a recession would unfold in the last half of the year.

Today, we start with the latest Fed data on the economy which may surprise you. The economy as measured by GDP is on fire in the 3Q.

Following that, I’ll offer a few comments on this week’s Fed policy committee meeting. In short, no surprises are expected.

Next, I’ll delve into the fact that huge numbers of Americans want younger leaders in Washington. But this is not happening; our leadership in Washington is actually getting older; and I’ll explain why below. It’s a very interesting topic.

Finally, I’ll bring you the latest report on US household income. Despite a relatively strong US economy, household incomes have declined for the last three consecutive years. Obviously, this is not a good development.

According to researchers in the government, the Federal Reserve and other sources, Baby Boomers (my generation) are set to pass down the largest inheritance in history to their children and grandchildren over the next 20 years. In fact, it has already begun.

The researchers have identified at least $84 trillion in tangible assets that Boomers will be passing down to their heirs and charities over the next 20 years – by far the largest in any previous two decades.

If we add in other assets they will be handing down which don’t include tangible assets such as cash, real estate, stocks, bonds, etc., the total could approach $100 trillion.

Americans actually agree on something in this time of widespread political discord: President Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president for a second term.

This is according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research which found much of the public united in sizing up the one trait Biden cannot change: his age (currently 80 years old).

The president has taken to raising the age issue himself, and joking about it, as if trying to relax his audiences about his 80 trips around the sun.

Age discrimination may be banned in the workplace, but the president's employers – the American people – aren't shy about their bias.

In the poll, 77% said Biden is too old to be effective for four more years. Not only do 89% of Republicans say that, so did 69% of Democrats. This view is held across age groups, not just by young people.

In contrast, about half of US adults say former President Donald Trump, 77, is too old for the office, with Democrats far more likely to disqualify Trump by age than are Republicans.

What's clear from the poll is that Americans are saying “out with the old and in with the young,” or at least younger.

The US economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product had a decent first half of the year, with GDP increasing at an annual rate of 2.4% in the 1Q and 2.0% in the 2Q. Yet according to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed, the economy has soared higher so far in the 3Q.

The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow indicator is showing the economy has soared at a whopping annual rate of 5.8% so far in the 3Q. Frankly, that is hard to believe and it is far above most forecasters’ current estimates for GDP growth in the 3Q.