We all grew up amidst rather constant warnings that the world as we know it would come to an end in our lifetimes, due primarily to uncontrolled population growth. Perhaps the most controversial was Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book “Population Bomb” which predicted mass starvation by the end of the century. Many others were equally apocalyptic.

Of course, as we all know, these doomsday predictions have not come to pass. The world’s population has increased eightfold since 1800 – from under 1 billion to over 8 billion today, and yet standards of living have never been higher.

Despite increases in consumption, and contrary to the prophecies of generations of doomsayers, the world hasn’t run out of a single metal or mineral. In fact, resources have generally grown cheaper relative to income over the past two centuries. Even on the largest cosmic scale, resources may well be limitless.

Such a statement as the above might sound impossible, even reckless. But researchers are increasingly coming to this very conclusion – that Earth may never run out of natural resources and energy.

What follows is my summary of a very interesting article which ran in The Wall Street Journal in late July entitled: “We Will Never Run Out of Resources.” The authors argue that while the supply of natural resources is theoretically finite, human knowledge and creativity are limitless.

We just topped another troubling consumer debt milestone last month according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed reported that outstanding credit card debt topped $1 trillion in July for the first time in US history.

The Fed reported that in the second quarter of this year, outstanding credit card balances rose by $45 billion to $1.03 trillion for the first time ever, reflecting robust consumer spending as well as higher prices due to inflation.

Polls consistently show that increasing numbers of likely voters now distrust the mainstream media. I’ve written about this trend more than once this year, but the bad news for the media just continues to pile up, as I’ll discuss today. Distrust of the mainstream media continues to rise among American adults, especially likely voters.

Personally, I consider this to be good news. It’s about time the public woke up to the fact that the mainstream media has been misleading us for years. With trust in freefall, the media is panicked and desperate for something to turn this trend around. Unfortunately for them, I think it’s too late. The voting public’s mind appears to be made up.

Today, we’ll look at the latest numbers showing Americans’ trust in the media has plunged to all-time record lows this year. Specifically, we’ll look at the latest GALLUP poll which found that a record number of adults have NO trust in the mass media whatsoever.

Fortunately, I have some really good news to report today. We’ll look at the latest numbers showing voter turnout among young people, those in their 20s and 30s, has surged in recent elections. While young people, especially those voting for the first time, lean heavily toward the Democratic Party initially, it is very encouraging to see their participation increasing significantly.

Before we get to those discussions, I have some comments on why I believe the 2024 presidential election will be one of the most interesting in many years. You may agree or disagree, but I’ll give you my thoughts. Let’s get started.

Let me say at the onset that economic and market forecasters don’t have the greatest track record to begin with. It is not unusual to see their forecasts out of step with what actually happens in the real world. But there’s usually also a contingent that gets it right.

Not this time, apparently. Virtually all the well-known forecasters predicted a recession in 2023. I read a lot of forecasts and not one I saw predicted the economy would grow above 2% in the first half of 2023 as it has, and virtually every one forecast a recession in the second half of this year, with many signaling a serious contraction.

I don’t remember a time when such a broad swath of forecasters were this bearish. I’ve been writing about it all year, while also making it clear that I didn’t share these overly negative views. Regular readers know I have consistently maintained that a recession is not the most likely scenario for this year.

Normally, I focus these weekly letters on one single pressing topic. Today, however, I don’t see one pressing topic to focus on. The record heat wave gripping much of the country seems to be the main topic of interest right now, and that wouldn’t make for an interesting letter. So, I comment on several current issues today I hope you will find interesting. Let’s get started.

Believe it or not, people are reluctant to tell others about their potentially controversial activities. As societies go, we Americans love our privacy. And why not?

Yet this reluctance to disclose can (and does) lead to under-reporting of these activities, which frustrates researchers who keep track of such information. Academics are frustrated that privacy-minded respondents impair their understanding of the world we live in, but that’s just how it is and has been throughout our nation’s history.

In 2022, about 45% of US households had at least one gun in their possession, according to surveys by Gallup and others. Gallup also found that nearly one-third of all US adults own a firearm.

I think it would be safe to say at this point that US equities have outperformed most forecasts for this year and have exceeded most investors’ expectations. As of last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 Index had gained almost 16% for the year. That’s pretty impressive given that most forecasters have been predicting a recession just ahead, and consumers seem to be in a dour mood about things in general.

Today we’ll look at how the equity markets have performed this year and speculate whether this impressive performance can continue. I suspect many of you reading this have your doubts, but I think most of us can agree that stocks have outperformed expectations so far in 2023.

Following that discussion, I’ll offer a few thoughts on why so many forecasters are so negative in their outlooks for the balance of 2023 and, in some cases, beyond. For many of these people, it is just their nature to be negative, no matter the circumstances. Never mind that they are usually wrong – that doesn’t seem to matter.

Finally, we’ll revisit the problem of rising office building vacancies. According to the National Association of Realtors, the US office vacancy rate hit a new record high in the first quarter of this year. If this trend continues, it poses a real threat to the US economy.

In most national elections, especially important ones like presidential elections, most likely voters have a decided opinion on which candidate they support and which one they oppose – and they vote accordingly. This is what elections are all about.

However, the latest polls from CNN and others show that more Americans than ever don’t want President Joe Biden OR former president Donald Trump to be our next president.

Usually, most Americans like one of the candidates running for president and oppose the other. That has been the norm for most of polling history. But not this time, apparently.

According to the most recent Gallup polls, more Americans this year (38%) said they are “very conservative or conservative” on SOCIAL ISSUES than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021 (30%). At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are “very liberal or liberal” has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remained about the same, near a third.

The last time this high a percentage of Americans said they were socially conservative was in 2012 when President Obama was in the White House, during a period when consistently more US adults identified as conservative rather than liberal on social issues.

The results are based on Gallup’s annual “Values and Beliefs” survey, conducted in May. The survey comes at a time when many states are considering policies regarding transgender matters, abortion and the teaching of gender and sexuality in schools.

The increase in conservative identification on social issues over the past two years was seen among nearly all political and demographic subgroups. Republicans show one of the largest increases, from 60% in 2021 to 74% today. Independents show a modest uptick of five percentage points, from 24% to 29%, while there has been no change among Democrats (10% in both 2021 and 2023).

All year, the mainstream media and those on the left have been predicting a recession for the US economy in 2023. Many have all but promised it. All this negativity has surprised me, frankly, since the left has its guy in the White House and until recently, control of both Houses of Congress. Why are they so negative, I’ve asked myself over and over.

My feeling like a broken record is because I have repeatedly written in these pages this year that I do NOT believe a recession is the most likely scenario. I still don’t. But the left keeps beating the drum, so I feel I have to respond.

On another note, I’ve always said I like to write about the things that interest me the most, and with that said, my thanks go out to the editors at The Economist who recently wrote a great article on American exceptionalism which has been on my mind ever since. The article appeared in April and was entitled “America’s Outperformance is a Marvel to Behold.” The article goes through a laundry list of reasons why America remains the most dominant and successful country in the world and why that’s not likely to change anytime soon.