FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
October 3, 2023

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Crime Rate Rises Sharply In U.S. – Why?

2. How Much Crime Is There In The U.S.?

3. U.S. Murder Rate Rises Significantly In 2020

4. Violent Crime Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Years

Overview – Crime Rate Rises Sharply In U.S. – Why?

Crime rates in the US have risen sharply in recent years. After falling consistently during the 1980s, 90s, 00s and 10s, the crime rate shot up in 2020 along with the onset of the Covid pandemic outbreak.

Researchers are not sure of the full cause of the increase in the crime rate, but most believe much of the reason goes back to the pandemic arrival in 2020 which unnecessarily lead to widespread school closures and business lockdowns. This put millions of teenagers and young people out of school and work with nothing productive to do.

In 2020, violent crimes surged in American cities, according to a 37-city study by the Council On Criminal Justice. This troubling trend continued in the pandemic's second year: murder, rape, and assault reports rose again in 2021.

The good news is, levels of nearly all offenses are lower, or have changed little, in the first six months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. The most notable exception is the large increase in motor vehicle theft.

The number of homicides in the 30 study cities providing homicide data was 9.4% lower – 202 fewer homicides – during the first half of 2023 than in the first half of 2022.

There were 2.5% fewer aggravated assaults in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022. The number of gun assaults also dropped (-5.6%) over the same period, but this trend is based on data from just 10 cities and should be viewed with caution.

Robberies, residential burglaries, nonresidential burglaries, and larcenies all decreased in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022. Robberies fell by 3.6%, residential burglaries by 3.8%, nonresidential burglaries by 5%, and larcenies by 4.1%.

However, motor vehicle thefts continued their upward trend through the first half of 2023. There were 33.5% more motor vehicle thefts from January through June 2023 compared to the first half of 2022. The number of drug offenses increased by 1% over the same period.

Domestic violence incidents increased by 0.3% in 11 cities during the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022. The number of drug offenses increased by 1% over the same period.

Violent crimes remain elevated compared to 2019, the year prior to the COVID pandemic and racial justice protests of 2020. There were 24% more homicides during the first half of 2023 than during the first half of 2019 in the study cities.

Property crime trends have been more mixed. There were fewer residential burglaries and larcenies and more nonresidential burglaries in the first half of 2023 than during the same period four years earlier. Motor vehicle thefts more than doubled (+104%), while drug offenses fell by 39%.

The bottom line is US crime rates have risen significantly in the last few years but are still well below where they were in 1990-1995.

How Much Crime Is There In The U.S.?

It’s difficult to say for certain. The two primary sources of government crime statistics – the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) – both paint an incomplete picture, though efforts at improvement are underway.

The FBI publishes annual data on crimes that have been reported to the police, but not those that haven’t been reported. The FBI also looks mainly at a handful of specific violent and property crimes, but not many other types of crime, such as drug crime. And while the FBI’s data is based on information it receives from thousands of federal, state, county, city and other police departments, not all agencies participate every year.

BJS, for its part, tracks crime by fielding a large annual survey of Americans ages 12 and older and asking them whether they were the victim of a crime in the past six months. One advantage of this approach is that it captures both reported and unreported crimes. But the BJS survey has limitations of its own. Like the FBI, it focuses mainly on a handful of violent and property crimes while excluding other kinds of crime. And since the BJS data is based on after-the-fact interviews with victims, it cannot provide information about one especially high-profile type of crime: murder.

U.S. Murder Rate Rises Significantly In 2020

Data released by the FBI two years ago showed a startling 30% spike in murders from 2019 to 2020. Many say this record-breaking increase was induced by the pandemic and the unrest following the murder of George Floyd.

Murder rates before the pandemic were incrementally increasing – for example, the percentage of murders jumped 0.3% from 2018 to 2019 – but still remained well below the early 1990s. After the big jump in 2020, murder rates returned to their incremental increase. Murder rates rose 4.3% in 2021 relative to 2020, according to the FBI.

25,198. That’s how many people have died so far this year (as of August) from all gun-related events in the US, including homicides, unintentional fire and suicides, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Another 18,948 people have been injured in gun-related events this year.

Violent Crime Remains Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Years

Violent crimes remain elevated compared to 2019, the year prior to the COVID pandemic and racial justice protests of 2020. There were 24% more homicides during the first half of 2023 than during the first half of 2019 in the study cities.

Property crime trends have been more mixed. There were fewer residential burglaries and larcenies and more nonresidential burglaries in the first half of 2023 than during the same period four years earlier. Motor vehicle thefts more than doubled (+104%), while drug offenses fell by 39%.

Crime is often seen as a major obstacle to economic growth and development, as it tends to increase economic insecurity, discourage long-term investment and new job opportunities, and undermine the rule of law. At the same time, insufficient economic growth combined with high economic and social inequality tends to increase the level of crime and violence.

The effects of crime on the economy are actually quite complex; for instance, a study from the World Bank found that violent crime actually reduced Mexico's GDP by 7%. As if this weren't enough, crime can also end up increasing the interest rates and borrowing costs of government debt.

Crime not only affects economic productivity when victims miss work but communities are also affected by lost tourism and retail sales. Even the so-called victimless crimes of prostitution, drug abuse, and gambling have major social consequences. Drug abuse affects worker productivity, uses public funds for drug addiction treatment programs and medical care, and leads to criminal activity to support drug addiction spending.

How To Respond To Current Rise In Crime Rate

There are many structural reforms which need to be made to limit crime in America. These will take time to put in place. On a more immediate level, we need to stop appointing liberal District Attorneys who are soft on crime.

The left has been very successful getting these liberal DAs in place across the country, and they have changed our justice system as we know it. Under questionable authority, they have downgraded many felony offenses into misdemeanors. They have released dangerous criminals from prison ahead of schedule and put them back on the street – with some terrible consequences.

Polls show that voters of all races support removing soft on crime DAs and replacing them with more conservative prosecutors who will crack down on the rise in crime. State legislators need to move to put such laws in place as soon as possible. It remains to be seen if that will happen.

We need more Americans to make their concerns known to their legislators and urge them to take this matter up ASAP. Unfortunately, I don’t see such a groundswell happening. Surveys show most Americans believe crime has gone up significantly in recent years.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Wishing you all the best,

Gary D. Halbert

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