FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
August 8, 2023

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Overview – Public Distrust of the Media is Record High

2. Most Interesting Presidential Election In A Long Time

3. Voter Distrust of Mainstream Media Continues to Surge

4. The Glaring Partisan Divide Over Trust in the Media

5. Good News: Political Activity of Young People is Soaring

Overview – Public Distrust of the Media is Record High

Polls consistently show that increasing numbers of likely voters now distrust the mainstream media. I’ve written about this trend more than once this year, but the bad news for the media just continues to pile up, as I’ll discuss today. Distrust of the mainstream media continues to rise among American adults, especially likely voters.

Personally, I consider this to be good news. It’s about time the public woke up to the fact that the mainstream media has been misleading us for years. With trust in freefall, the media is panicked and desperate for something to turn this trend around. Unfortunately for them, I think it’s too late. The voting public’s mind appears to be made up.

Today, we’ll look at the latest numbers showing Americans’ trust in the media has plunged to all-time record lows this year. Specifically, we’ll look at the latest GALLUP poll which found that a record number of adults have NO trust in the mass media whatsoever.

Fortunately, I have some really good news to report today. We’ll look at the latest numbers showing voter turnout among young people, those in their 20s and 30s, has surged in recent elections. While young people, especially those voting for the first time, lean heavily toward the Democratic Party initially, it is very encouraging to see their participation increasing significantly.

Before we get to those discussions, I have some comments on why I believe the 2024 presidential election will be one of the most interesting in many years. You may agree or disagree, but I’ll give you my thoughts. Let’s get started.

The Most Interesting Election In A Long Time

The presidential election of 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most interesting contests in many years. Why? There are several reasons I will touch on below, but the most glaring one, in my opinion, is that voters are not happy with any of the current candidates.

Polls consistently show that most likely voters do not want to see a rerun of Biden versus Trump. Neither do I, by the way. Many voters agree Biden is too old (now 80) and Trump is too controversial. The Democrats know Biden is a weak candidate, but they don’t have an obvious alternative they believe can beat Trump. Lots of Republicans, while generally supporting many of Trump’s policies, consider him to be an embarrassment. In short, neither party is particularly happy with their choices this time.

Yet it is looking increasingly likely we will indeed see a rematch of Biden versus Trump. Currently, there doesn’t seem to be a viable alternative for either one of them. Many Democrats seem to be afraid to abandon Biden – he is the sitting president after all.

And for the Republicans, while there are a lot of GOP wannabes running (currently a dozen or so), Trump leads his closest rival, Ron DeSantis, by a staggering 54% to 17% margin, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll released last week.

Like him or not, most politicos agree Trump’s lead is insurmountable barring some huge, unexpected development.

By the way, that same NYT/Siena poll showed Trump tied with Biden, 43% to 43%,  in a head-to-head race for president. This is the first time Trump has matched Biden in this particular poll. That’s good news if you are a Trump supporter.

While we may not be happy with our choices, the 2024 presidential race still looks to be a very interesting one as both candidates try as they might to get more voters to like them. President Biden initially pushed for several presidential debates, although his supporters generally agree he is not nearly as mentally fit as he was a decade ago – and might struggle in debates with Trump. Plus, he has always been prone to “gaffs” throughout his political career.

Former President Trump, on the other hand, has suggested he will not participate in any presidential debates, and who can blame him, really? With a 37-point lead in the polls over his closest rival, why should he? He knows full well that the media will launch an all-out personal attack on him in any debate, so why give them an opportunity? Why not just say no?

Personally, I would like to see at least a couple of Biden/Trump debates, just because I think they would be interesting to watch. But then I am an admitted political junkie, even if the candidates are both far from my liking. Most likely voters also want to see the two men debate, even though they wish they had better choices to vote for.

Both candidates are planning to shift their campaigns into high-gear this fall. It will be very interesting to see what kind of ads these two unpopular candidates will cook up. It will also be interesting to see what they have to say on the campaign trail going forward. Both candidates face some big challenges, so there’s no telling what they might come up with.

Most interesting to watch perhaps is whether there are any big surprises between now and this fall. Will any viable new challengers appear? Will Biden make some fatal mistakes (gaffs)? Will Trump get himself into trouble with controversial remarks on the campaign trail? Either one of these guys could blunder big-time.

As for me personally, I will have to vote for Trump again. I wouldn’t vote for Biden in the first place, but he has gone so far to the left since becoming president, he and those pulling his strings now scare me. Biden’s campaign is now run by some really radical liberals who don’t have America’s best interests at heart – in fact, just the opposite.

Voter Distrust of Mainstream Media Continues to Surge

The media is in trouble. Its traditional business model has all but collapsed, its journalism standards are in freefall. And Americans have noticed. Voters in the United States express historically high levels of mistrust in the press. Faith in our nation’s political system is disintegrating at the same time. Belief in government doing the right thing has never been lower.

These two trends – interrelated, mutually reinforcing – have been years in the making. Together, they constitute a crisis in confidence in two institutions essential to self-government. This is a big reason why a record number of 21st century Americans hate politics. It’s more than just the stench of situational ethics we see so often. Leaders in the two major parties don’t show the level of sportsmanship expected of 9-year-old Little Leaguers!

I could go on and on with this discussion, but you know what I’m talking about.

The Glaring Partisan Divide Over Trust in the Media

A generation ago, majorities of Americans had “a great deal of trust” or a “fair amount of trust” in the mass media. Yet the ground began to shift at the dawn of the 21^st century and trust in the media reached its low point during the gutter politics that embodied the 2016 presidential election when Donald Trump surprisingly defeated Hillary Clinton.

Today, according to Gallup, only 7% of American adults have a “great deal” of trust and confidence in the media and only 27% say they have “a fair amount.” That number is offset by a corresponding number of Americans (28%) who say they do not have very much confidence in the press. But the 7% of those with great faith in the media are dwarfed by the 38% of Americans who answer “none at all” when asked whether they believe newspapers, television, and radio are giving them the news straight.

Yet here’s what is unique, and most troubling, about the decline of trust in the U.S. media: In a nation divided nearly evenly between citizens who vote for Democrats and those who vote Republican, the mistrust is not evenly distributed. Not nearly. The erosion has happened on only one side of the political spectrum.

About 70% of Democrats still trust the news media, a figure that hasn’t changed appreciably since the Nixon presidency. Yet trust among independents has plummeted to 27% and among Republicans it has fallen off the cliff: Only 14% of Republicans say they have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the media.

Good News: Political Activity of Younger People is Soaring

Finally, I’ll close this political discussion with some really good news. Long thought to have given up on politics and given in to apathy, the political activity of younger people is now surging.

In 2018, the first election since former President Donald Trump’s 2016 win, turnout spiked among younger voters, with almost double the number of those in their late 20s and early 30s taking part compared to the previous midterms in 2014. Wow!

Researchers say the 2022 election had the second highest voter turnout among voters under 30 in at least the past three decades. So far, the highest turnout during a midterm for this voting bloc was in 2018 when about 31% of young people who were eligible to vote cast a ballot. These numbers are very encouraging! Let’s hope they continue to grow.

Interesting but not surprising, younger voters in their 20s and 30s lean strongly toward the Democratic Party, at least initially. About 27% of adults between the ages of 18-29 cast a ballot in the midterm election in 2022 year, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.

Of that number, NBC News reported that 65% voted for Democrats while only 31% voted for Republicans. Despite that, it is very encouraging to see this demographic getting more involved in politics and voting – even if you are a conservative like me.

Hopefully, this growing cadre of young voters will realize before long that the Democrat Party does not represent them well and will migrate to our side over time, as they’ve done often in the past.  This time around, that remains to be seen, of course.

Record Heat Wave Continues in Texas & Elsewhere

Texas, along with much of the country, is suffering from a record heat wave this summer, which includes the Austin/Central Texas area where we live. As of yesterday (Monday), Austin has recorded 32 consecutive days of triple digit heat.

July also broke a record for the longest streak of 105 degrees or above, with 11 days, from July 10 to July 20. 

This is the longest and hottest heat wave ever recorded in Austin, as well as many other cities in Texas and the South. And we’re just now into early August which is one of the hottest months every year.

Hoping it’s cooler where you live,

Gary D. Halbert

SPECIAL ARTICLES

Americans’ Trust of News Media Hits Record Low

Chaos Predicted Going Into 2024 Election

Turnout By Younger Voters Near Record High

Gary's Between the Lines column:
Americans Watching Less & Less Mainstream News – Why?

 

Forecasts & Trends E-Letter is published by Halbert Wealth Management, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Information contained herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed as to its accuracy. Opinions and recommendations herein generally reflect the judgement of the named author and may change at any time without written notice. Market opinions contained herein are intended as general observations and are not intended as specific advice. Readers are urged to check with their financial counselors before making any decisions. This does not constitute an offer of sale of any securities. Halbert Wealth Management, Inc., and its affiliated companies, its officers, directors and/or employees may or may not have their own money in markets or programs mentioned herein. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments have a risk of loss. Be sure to read all offering materials and disclosures before making a decision to invest. Reprinting for family or friends is allowed with proper credit. However, republishing (written or electronically) in its entirety or through the use of extensive quotes is prohibited without prior written consent.