FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
September 20, 2022

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Violent Crime Continues To Rise Across America

2. Violent Crime Spiked To New Record In 2020

3. Deadly Road Rage Shootings Hit New High In 2021

4. Austin, TX Murder Rate Hit A Record High In 2021

5. Fed Expected To Raise Rate 75 Basis-Points Tomorrow

Overview – Violent Crime Continues To Rise Across America

We continue to have a violent crime crisis across the United States. It began with a record rise in violent crimes in 2020 followed by a further increase in 2021 and law enforcement and crime researchers are generally not optimistic about this year as well. FoxNews recently surveyed seven of America’s largest cities, and all have had an increase in violent crime over this same time period this year.

The largest increases are mostly in our biggest cities, but it is also occurring in smaller cities and rural areas. Some researchers have tried to tie the increase to Covid, but it has become clear that there’s much more to it than that. Others have tried to tie it to record gun sales in 2020 and near record sales of firearms in 2021, but there is also more to it than that.

I did more reading than usual for this week’s letter, and the only conclusion I could come to is that most crime researchers and law enforcement are not really sure why violent crime has seen an unprecedented rise in the last few years. But since it is happening just about everywhere, I thought we should talk about it today.

I must say that the spike in violent crime hasn’t affected me or my family personally, other than there are a few areas we don’t go to anymore. I hope the same is true for you. Let’s get started.

Violent Crime Spiked To New Record In 2020

Amid a series of interlocking crises, violent crime and some types of property crime rose significantly across the country in 2020 and since then in communities of all types. Violent crimes are typically defined as murder, assault, rape and sexual assault, robbery and in many cases, auto theft.

Most significantly, the murder rate – that is, the number of murders per 100,000 people – rose sharply by nearly 30% in 2020, according to the FBI. Other sources I read put the increase at nearly 35%. Using the FBI’s increase of nearly 30% over the prior year, there were 21,570 murders in 2020, the largest single-year increase ever recorded by the FBI.

The FBI breaks down the victims by race and ethnicity, though its numbers are considered incomplete. They could be higher. Based on those numbers, here are the murder levels in 2020: at least 9,941 were Black, 7,043 were white and 2,851 were Hispanic, with the remainder among all other races.

It is too soon to talk with precision about national crime trends in 2021, as the FBI has yet to publish its official national data, but most other sources I read believe the increase continued last year, although not as big a jump as in 2020. TIME Magazine, for example, reports that the murder rate rose another 7% in 2021, citing sources other than the FBI, and based on its own surveys of law enforcement.

Many cities set new records for murders last year. Philadelphia, Portland, Louisville and Albuquerque, just to name a few, had their deadliest years on record in 2021. Philadelphia, the nation’s sixth-largest city, had 562 homicides surpassing its previous high of 500 set in 1990.

As for 2022, Fox News Digital examined crime data from Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, Seattle and Washington, D.C., and found violent crimes increased anywhere from 5% to up to 40% compared to the same time frame (January thru April) in 2021. 

New York City has so far seen the largest increase in violent crimes out of the cities reviewed by Fox News, with this year’s 40.6% increase compared to 2021.

More than 75% of murders nationwide were committed with a firearm, reaching a new high point, according to the FBI. Other sources I read, including the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention, put that percentage even higher at 79%. In some cities, including Philadelphia, murders using firearms were as high as 90%.

Deadly Road Rage Shootings Hit New High In 2021

In terms of both the total number of shootings, and the deadliness of those incidents, 2021 was by far the worst year since advocacy group Everytown For Gun Safety began tracking road rage statistics. Of the nation's 728 road rage incidents involving a gun in 2021, nearly two-thirds, 62%, led to an injury or death; 131 people were killed.

The violence of 2021 outpaced 2020, when there were 702 road rage encounters involving a gun, 49% of which led to injury or death; 102 people were killed. And these are just the incidents which were reported to the authorities; many others were never reported.

Everytown's data was derived from the database of nationwide shooting reports maintained by the nonprofit Gun Violence Archive. The group's road rage violence statistics date back to 2016 and are consistently lower than the FBI’s figures for reasons which are not entirely clear.

Road rage violence in the US is unparalleled elsewhere in the world, according to Sarah Burd-Sharps, Everytown's senior director of research. "Driving certainly gets heated in plenty of other countries. And we've looked at road rage in a number of countries, but only in the U.S. is someone shot and injured or killed every 17 hours, as what we've calculated, in a road rage incident," said Burd-Sharps.

The mere presence of a gun in a vehicle has been shown to make drivers more aggressive. In a 2017 study published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 60 people were randomly assigned a selected scenario to drive, with either a gun or a tennis racket placed in the passenger seat.

Study author Brad Bushman said the presence of a gun in the car proved detrimental. Bushman, who was a member of former President Barack Obama's committee on gun violence, said research suggests people become more aggressive when they're frustrated.

"So when people are in a car, they have a goal, right? The goal is to get from point 'A' to point 'B,' presumably as quickly as possible. And if anything frustrates that, it increases the likelihood of aggression, and if there's a gun in the vehicle, that makes a lethal event more likely," said Bushman.

Causes of The Increase In Violent Crime

Criminologists and local law-enforcement officials don’t agree on the reasons for the surge in violent crime. Some cite stress from the Covid-19 pandemic. Some point to what they see as frayed relations between law enforcement and Black communities after police killings, such as that of George Floyd in Minneapolis on May 25, 2020.

Still others blame bail reform and moves in some cities to bring fewer prosecutions. Early prison releases are another factor because of repeat offenders. And of course, many cities have cut their police budgets and reduced their forces in the last few years.

Personally, I believe it is these factors in the preceding paragraph which are most responsible for the surge in violent crime. Bail reform, which has made it easier for criminals to get out of jail more quickly, and fewer prosecutions by liberal Attorneys General have put more bad people on the streets. And cutting police budgets and reducing forces have left law enforcement with less manpower to fight them.

Fortunately, it now appears many of those cities have recognized this was a big mistake and are taking steps to return to their previous policies and funding. Even many liberals are coming to this conclusion.

Austin, TX Murder Rate Hit A Record High In 2021

Like many other large cities, the murder rate in Austin, where we live, rose to a new record high in 2021. The previous record of 59 murders in 1984 was eclipsed last year when the murder rate soared to 89, an increase of 80% over 2020.

Austin could be on-track to match or exceed that number in 2022. As of September 11, the murder rate for this year was 60, with just over three months to go in the year. So, Austin’s murder rate will be much higher by the time we close out the year.

Austin proper, the state capital, has a population of just under 1 million but the metro area is nearly 2.2 million, and the city continues to grow rapidly as more and more people flock to the scenic “hill country” of Texas. Austin is considered one of the most liberal cities in Texas, so I just have to tolerate the political environment.

Fed Expected To Raise Rate 75 Basis-Points Tomorrow

The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) which sets the Fed Funds interest rate is meeting today and tomorrow at which time it is widely expected to announce another 75-basis-point hike in the key lending rate. That will put the Fed Funds target range at 3.0%-3.25%.

The FOMC meets again in early November and mid-December when it is expected to raise the rate two more times this year. The markets expect the Fed Funds rate to be at or near 4% by the end of this year.

Best personal regards,

Gary D. Halbert

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