FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
January 25, 2022

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. More Americans Identify As Republicans Than Democrats

2. Party Preference Shifts Follow Presidential Approval Rating

3. Reasons Why Republicans Have Pulled Into The Lead Now

4. 59% of Likely Voters Disapprove Biden Job Performance

Overview

Last week was one of those times when a good deal of news came out, but nothing was significant enough to dominate the headlines. However, there was one surprising piece of news which definitely grabbed my attention, and it should have grabbed yours as well – except that the media chose to ignore it for the most part.

When a political shift of this magnitude happens, we should all take notice and make ourselves aware of the reasons the change is occurring. That’s what we’ll do today. Following that discussion, we’ll look at President Biden’s plunging job approval numbers, why this is happening and why he continues to deny it.

More Americans Now Identify As Republicans Than Democrats

Historically, more Americans identify as Democrats than Republicans. There are reasons for this tendency as I will discuss below. Now and then, however, the balance shifts in the other direction and those who identify as Republicans outnumber the Democrats.

Gallup reported last week that in the 4Q of 2021, the balance once again shifted to the Republicans to the surprise of most Dems and the media. The Democrats had a comfortable lead in Gallup’s poll at the beginning of last year at 49 to 40. However, as the year wore on, that lead narrowed consistently and finally reversed such that the Republicans finished the year with a lead of 47 to 42. The question, of course, is why?

These results are based on aggregated data from all US Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled US adults.

Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent. Independents are then asked whether they “lean more” toward the Republican or Democratic Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.

Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the 1Q and the five-point Republican edge in the 4Q are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991. Let’s look at some historical numbers for perspective.

• The Democratic lead in the 1Q of last year was the largest for the party since the 4Q of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-point advantage. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999 and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
   
• The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the US victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

Party Preference Shifts Follow Presidential Approval Rating

Shifting party preferences historically are likely tied to changes in popularity of the man (or men) who served as president during the year. Republican Donald Trump finished out his single term in January of last year, after being defeated in the 2020 election, with a 34% job approval rating, the lowest of his term.

His popularity fell more than 10 points from Election Day 2020 as the country's COVID-19 infections and deaths reached then-record highs. As you will recall, Trump refused to acknowledge the result of the election, and his supporters rioted at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an apparent attempt to prevent Congress from counting the 2020 Electoral College votes.

That event lasted only a few hours, and there was never any question that the election results would be counted and certified. However, the media characterized it as a serious threat to American democracy, and it remains about the only serious criticism Democrats have of Republicans as we move toward the November mid-term elections.

Joe Biden enjoyed relatively high ratings after taking office on January 20, and his approval stayed high through the early summer as COVID-19 infections dramatically decreased after millions of Americans got vaccinated against the disease.

However, a summer surge of infections tied to the delta variant of the coronavirus made it clear the pandemic was not over in the US, and Biden's approval ratings began to sag. Later, the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan caused Biden's ratings to fall further, into the low 40s. His ratings remain low as the US battles rising inflation and yet another surge of COVID-19 infections, this time tied to the omicron variant of the virus.

With Trump's approval rating at a low point and Biden relatively popular in the 1Q, 49% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with 40% who were Republicans or Republican leaners.

Yet by the 3Q Biden's ratings began to falter, while there was no meaningful change in Republican affiliation. In the 4Q, party support flipped as Republicans made gains, from 44% to 47%, and Democratic affiliation fell from 45% to 42%.

These 4Q shifts coincided with strong GOP performances in the 2021 elections, including a Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial election and a near-upset of the Democratic incumbent governor in New Jersey.

Reasons Why Republicans Have Pulled Into The Lead Now

There are numerous reasons why shifts in political party preference occur. While this is true, there is one dependable constant in national politics: The party in power gets the blame for America’s ills. Whatever the American people think is wrong with the country and the economy gets blamed on the party in power.

As you know, the Democrats currently control both Houses of Congress and the White House,  so they are getting maximum blame for current problems such as soaring inflation, the latest surge in Covid-19 infections (omicron) and the significant increase in crime in our cities last year.

Thus, it should not come as a surprise that more Americans currently identify as Republicans than Democrats. This should also explain why Republicans are projected to do very well in the mid-term elections later this year and may regain one or both houses of Congress.

Just keep in mind that if the Republicans sweep Washington this fall and retake both houses of Congress, it will be interesting to see how much blame for the country’s problems will be directed at them versus President Biden who will still be in the White House.

There is usually a temporary “grace period” when a new party comes into office, so if the Republicans prevail later this year, they may have a year or so to get some things accomplished. But this remains to be seen.

In any event, as the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

59% of Likely Voters Disapprove Biden Job Performance

New polls conducted by the respected Trafalgar Group show Joe Biden’s approval numbers still in the cellar, and congressional Democrats lagging behind Republicans by over 13 points on the generic ballot ahead of the November mid-term elections.

Of the 1,083 likely general election voters surveyed by Trafalgar between 01/12/22 and 01/15/22, just 38.7% approved of Biden’s performance and 59.2% disapproved. Nearly 50% of likely voters said they “strongly disapprove” of the job Biden is doing. These are staggering numbers!

Among Republicans, a mere 10.1% approve and 88.3% disapprove. Biden also polled poorly with independent, unaffiliated voters as well, garnering only 30.8% approval versus 67.7% disapproval. Biden still enjoys majority support among Democrats with 71.7% approving of his job performance and 25.6% disapproving. That is to be expected.

Trafalgar also asked likely general election voters, “If the election for Congress were held today, which candidate would you vote for?” Respondents said they preferred Republicans over Democrats 55.7% to 42.2%.

President Biden’s first year in office was marked by a series of self-inflicted disasters and failures, including his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, the worsening COVID pandemic that he promised to end, inflation including soaring gas prices, the border crisis, his executive overreach, his increasingly authoritarian behavior, his intentionally divisive policies and his seemingly declining mental state.

Yet to hear the president and Democrats talk, it’s as if they are totally unaware of these spiking disapproval numbers. At his 2-hour press conference last week, President Biden gloated that he’s accomplished more in his first year in office than any US president in recent history.

And it appears he truly believes this. In his press conference last week, he said he doesn’t trust the polls. Surprisingly, he intimated the American people are not smart enough to understand all that he and his administration have accomplished. The media let it slide, of course.

All presidents, regardless of political party, tend to be a little delusional when it comes to their perceived accomplishments, but President Biden and the current Democrat leadership have taken it to new heights in my opinion.

I’ll leave it there for today.

Very best regards,

Gary D. Halbert

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