FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
September 21, 2021

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Decadal Census Reveals Much More Than Population

2. White Voters Decline As A Share Of Overall Electorate

3. Yet Dems May Not Be So Thrilled This Time Next Year

4. Why Hispanics Are Trending Heavily Toward The GOP

Overview

As we all know, the government conducts a “census” once every 10 years to determine the size of our population. The size of our population drives many things. The census tells us who we are and where we are going as a nation, and helps our communities determine where to build everything from schools to supermarkets, and from homes to hospitals. It also helps the government decide how to distribute funds and assistance to states and localities.

Yet the once-a-decade census also tells us many other interesting things in addition to the population, as I will point out today. This may be one of my most interesting newsletters, regardless if you are a Democrat, Republican or Independent. Let me know what you think. Let’s get started.

Decadal Census Reveals Much More Than Population

The national census is conducted every 10 years. The 2020 census was recently completed, and the results are now being made public. Many important government policies are driven by the census results, including allocations of federal spending for infrastructure, social benefits and many other programs.

Perhaps the single most important result of the census is it determines the allocation of the 435 House of Representatives congressional seats among the 50 states. As a result of population trends, some states lose congressional seats and some gain them based on population shifts shown by the census.

The 2020 census resulted in a loss of one House seat each in California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

The states which will gain one House seat as a result of last year’s census are Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. The big winner was Texas, which gained two seats. And the census allows states to redraw their district maps based on internal population shifts.

This “redistricting” often results in bizarrely shaped districts designed to favor increased representation for one party or the other in a process called “gerrymandering.” The Supreme Court recently ruled that they intend to keep out of this state level political infighting unless there is blatant racial discrimination.

This gives the state governors and legislatures a free hand to do their best (or worst). The implications of gerrymandering go beyond state representation in Congress. New seats in states like Texas also increase their share of the Electoral College vote, which determines the winner of the presidential race.

For these reasons and others, the latest census delivered a significant political impact which will make its first appearance in the 2022 mid-term elections when the new district lines will apply. After that, any advantage is locked-in until the next census in 2030.

White Voters Decline As A Share Of Overall Electorate

Now here’s where the latest census starts to get really interesting.

One aspect of the 2020 census which is receiving a great deal of attention now that the results are coming out is the decline of white voters from 64% in the 2010 census to 58% in last year’s count. Liberals and progressives applauded the decreased percentage representation of white people voting and interpreted this to mean more people of color are participating in elections.

PAUSE: I have to stop and tell you the Census Bureau changed how the question of race was asked last year and allowed respondents to claim they were more than one race. Say what? Yes, I know, it’s crazy. But this change resulted in the lower showing of white people. So, I wouldn’t get overly worked up about it. The first link in SPECIAL ARTICLES below explains it in more detail.

Anyway, liberals have long assumed that people of color automatically vote Democratic. Yet this is changing rapidly, especially among Hispanics who are shifting rapidly to the Republican column because they are more aligned with GOP views on the economy, immigration and their pro-life views, among others.

As this shift among Hispanics is playing out, Democrats have come to rely more heavily on college-educated white voters in urban districts to support their electoral coalitions. The bottom line is while many liberals relished in the (supposed) decline in the number of white voters in the electorate in the latest census, they should be careful what they wish for.

Why? There were many other counterintuitive insights contained in the census which suggest Republicans will do quite well in the mid-term elections next year and pick up a potentially significant number of House seats to retake the majority.

Despite that real possibility, the mainstream media has embraced the latest census findings as great news for the Democratic Party. Here is just a sampling of liberal media headlines of late:

“America’s White [Voting] Population Shrank for the First Time”

“Vast Stretches of America Are Shrinking. Almost All of Them Voted for Trump”

“Census Release Shows America is More Diverse and More Multiracial Than Ever”

While headlines such as those just above aren’t necessarily wrong – time will tell – but the underlying trends are nothing new. It’s just that the 2020 census results are finally coming out now, thus providing progressives with some new meat to chew on. And for now, they’re all excited about it.

Yet Dems May Not Be So Thrilled This Time Next Year

While many Democrats and the mainstream media are celebrating the 2020 census results for now, they could be singing an entirely different tune this time next year as we head into the mid-term elections. That’s especially true as a good many House Dems are trailing their Republican challengers for re-election – as more and more pollsters are predicting.

If this proves to be the case, I doubt we’ll hear Democrats boasting that there are fewer white Americans. They might even be worried about that trend a year from now. It won’t surprise me.

Since we’re on the topic of how many white people are in the population, here’s another interesting and significant factoid: the proportion of whites who are actual voters is far higher than their percentage in the overall population.

Put differently, a larger percentage of white people vote in national elections than just about any other race. Specifically, even though the 2020 census showed only 58% of Americans are white (down from 64% 10 years ago), almost 72% of them voted in last year’s presidential election – more than any other racial group. That’s a big deal!

Let me put some specific numbers on this to highlight the point. Michigan’s population is 72% white overall but had 80% percent white voters in 2020, according to Census data. Pennsylvania is 74% white but last year had 83% white voters; Wisconsin is 79% white but had 89% white voters.

Also, according to Census data, Arizona is just 53% white overall, but had 65% white voters in 2020. Georgia is 50% white overall, but had 60% white voters. Likewise, Texas is 40% white but had 57% white voters last year. These are just a few examples.

The bottom line is, white people tend to vote much more often than minorities.

There are several theories as to why this is, but I’ll leave it to others to debate.

Why Hispanics Are Trending Heavily Toward The GOP

Hispanics are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19% vs. 12% for Blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among Hispanics will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future – since their share of voters will continue to increase while Black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.

And these Hispanic voting trends have not been favorable for the Democrats. In 2020, Latinos had an amazingly large 16-point margin shift toward Donald Trump. Moreover, Latino shifts toward Trump were widely dispersed geographically. Hispanic shifts toward Trump were not confined to Florida (28 points) and Texas (18 points) but also included states like Nevada (16 points), Pennsylvania (12 points), Arizona (10 points) and Georgia (8 points).

What lies behind these trends which surprised most Democrats? One possibility is that Democrats fundamentally misunderstood the nature of this voter group and what they really care about. Hispanics were lumped in with “people of color” and were assumed to embrace the activism around racial issues which dominated so much of the emotional political scene in 2020.

This was a flawed assumption. The reality of the Hispanic population is that they are, broadly speaking, an overwhelmingly working class, economically progressive, socially moderate constituency that cares above all, about jobs, the economy and healthcare.

Moreover, Latinos are an optimistic group as compared to some other minorities. Three-fifths of Latinos in the national exit poll last year said they believed life would be better for the next generation of Americans. Well over 3 to 1 Hispanics said they would rather be a citizen of the United States than any other country in the world and by 35 points said they were proud of the way American democracy works. 

This does not bode well for the Democrats who hold our country in such disdain. I could continue on, but I will leave it there for today.

Conclusions – Census Reveals Much More Than Population

The 2020 Census gave us much more than the latest update on our population which has now grown to 308.7 million people, up from 281.4 million in 2000. I barely scratched the surface today, so maybe I’ll revisit this subject again in the weeks ahead. But at least today’s letter gives you a few things to think about.

Like how our population will evolve over the next 40-50 years. How minorities, especially Hispanics, will influence our culture in the decades to come. And what America’s future will look like. I don’t know about you, but this is all fascinating to me.

All the best,

Gary D. Halbert

SPECIAL ARTICLES

Are There Really Fewer White People In The US? You’ll Be Surprised

As Democrats Go Increasingly Liberal, Hispanics Move To Center (GOP)

Gary's Between the Lines blog: Biden To Tax Rich & Corporations To Spend Trillions

 

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