The Most Important Election In Our Lifetimes? Maybe

FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
October 20, 2020

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. My Thoughts on Why This Election Is So Critical

2. Let’s Revisit Why Hillary Lost to Trump in 2016

3. The Worst Joe Biden Gaffe of the Entire Campaign

4. Americans Don’t Want A Liberal-Packed Supreme Court

5. A Record Turnout Election, Senate’s Fate Unknown

6. Measured Risk Portfolios Webinars October 21 & 22

Overview – My Thoughts on Why This Election Is So Critical

With what many consider to be the most important presidential election in our lifetimes two weeks from today, I feel compelled to offer some of my thoughts and make some other observations about this election.

One very unusual thing about this election is that for Democrats it’s far more about getting rid of Donald Trump than it is about electing Joe Biden. In my case, I made it clear I voted for Trump (I just couldn’t vote for Hillary), and I will vote for him again this year. If you’re a regular reader, you know that.

Also, I have every reason to believe virtually everyone in my broad audience has already made up their minds about who they’re going to vote for on November 3. I don’t expect to change any minds with what I will share today, but I feel it’s important to do so, just for the record.

Let’s Revisit Why Hillary Clinton Lost to Trump in 2016

I thought I would start us off by going back to 2016 and the nasty race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. On September 16 of that year, candidate Hillary lost her composure and called Trump supporters “DEPLORABLES.” This was no gaffe – she meant it – here’s the quote:

“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic -- you name it. And unfortunately, there are people like that. And he [Trump] has lifted them up.”

Trump and Clinton

This was the worst voter insult I had ever heard from a politician in a presidential campaign, by far. I firmly believe it cost her the election! While Hillary still won the popular vote, Trump pummeled her in the Electoral College, 304 to 227.

Some political pundits said Hillary lost because she didn’t campaign in the Rust Belt states, which she took for granted. That was a factor, of course, but I and others believe it was her DEPLORABLES comments which doomed her.

Many political pundits said she lost because over 6 million Democrat voters stayed home and did not vote, compared to 2012. Most said it was because Hillary had such a commanding lead in the public polls, many Dem voters decided it was not necessary to vote.

I believe otherwise! I think Hillary’s DEPLORABLES comment is what sank her. Not entirely, but largely, in my opinion. A lot of Dem voters were not enthusiastic about Hillary, but probably would have turned out to vote for her. We’ll never know for sure.

The Worst Joe Biden Gaffe of the Entire Campaign

In my opinion, Joe Biden made an equally insulting voter gaffe earlier this month. The media is doing its best to cover it up, but here it is:

When Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was asked earlier this month if voters deserved to know whether he would pack the Supreme Court, he replied, “NO, THEY DON’T!” It was a stunning answer. You can read it here.

Biden doubled down by adding: “The American people will know my opinion on court-packing when the election is over.” Wow! This reminds me of something House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a few years back: “We have to pass this bill to see what’s in it.” Remember that?

If Joe Biden loses this election, his “No, they don’t!” comment will be the reason why, in my opinion.

Same Pollster Predicts Trump Could Win Again in 2020

As you may remember, Hillary Clinton had a wide lead over Donald Trump in all of the major political polls at this same time in 2016. Most mainstream pollsters predicted she would win in a “landslide.”

What you might not remember, however, is there was one pollster which predicted Donald Trump would win the 2016 election via the Electoral College.

That pollster was the TRAFALGAR GROUP, a Georgia-based polling firm known for its ability to correctly sample hard-to-reach, conservative Trump voters. As you probably know, there are many Americans who support Donald Trump but are unwilling to admit this to pollsters, even when they fully intend to vote for him.

Mainstream pollsters refer to these closet Trump supporters as “shy voters.” And there are believed to be millions of them. The problem is, the mainstream pollsters don’t know how to identify them, much less sample them.

That’s where Trafalgar Group comes in. Trafalgar has developed a way to identify “shy” Trump voters. While Trafalgar will not reveal its entire methodology for identifying shy Trump voters, it has shared a few details.

Essentially, Trafalgar doesn’t ask potential voters: “Who are YOU going to vote for?” Instead it asks: “Who are your FRIENDS and NEIGHBORS going to vote for?” Trafalgar has found that people are much more likely to answer this question honestly.

This method allowed Trafalgar to correctly predict Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. So, what is Trafalgar predicting for 2020? While the mainstream pollsters are predicting a big victory for Joe Biden, Trafalgar predicts it’s a margin-of-error race at this point.

Trafalgar’s latest polling shows it’s now a neck-and-neck race – too close to call – but it also shows President Trump is ahead in the key battleground states of North Carolina, Florida and Michigan. And he’s gaining ground in some other swing states.

So, what does this tell us? Only that the race between President Trump and Joe Biden is likely a LOT CLOSER than the mainstream pollsters would have us believe.

If you want to learn more about Trafalgar’s thinking on the upcoming presidential election, you can listen to a fascinating interview with its founder, Robert Cahaly. It’s a little long at 1 hour, 16 minutes, but very interesting.

Finally, while all eyes will be on the presidential race in two weeks, we also need to pay close attention to the Senate where the Democrats believe they have a shot at regaining control. The worst-case scenario is that Biden wins the White House and the Dems retake the Senate.

If that happens, brace yourself for the most liberal swing in our lifetimes! Let’s hope not!!

Americans Don’t Want A Liberal-Packed Supreme Court

But here’s some good news. As regular readers know, I like to write about what interests me most each week. The most interesting thing I read recently was a new Washington Examiner/YouGov poll which found a solid majority of Americans do NOT want a liberal-stacked Supreme Court.

You’re surprised, right? Yeah, so was I. It is interesting because one of the main issues in this year’s presidential race is whether Joe Biden, if he wins, would seek to enlarge the Supreme Court from its current roster of 9 Justices to as many as 13-15, and hope to pack the Court with liberals during his administration.

While Mr. Biden says he wouldn’t do that, virtually no one believes him and liberals are pushing him hard to do exactly that. But here’s the surprising thing: The latest Washington Examiner/YouGov poll found (drum-roll, please):

More than 60% of registered voters are against packing the court with liberal justices if more seats are added to the court.
47% would like to see the court be balanced if it is expanded with additional seats, while only 11% said they want the court to be "overwhelmingly liberal."
52% of Democrats said they want the court to be balanced, while 38% said they want it to have a liberal majority.
47% are against adding more seats to the nine-member Supreme Court, while 34% are in favor of the idea.
58% said the Supreme Court nomination is "very important" to their vote in the November election, a reference to President Donald Trump's recent selection of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Conclusions – Record Turnout Election, Senate Fate Unknown

As discussed above, Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election because six million Democrat voters failed to show up. That is NOT going to happen this year! All indications are this is going to be a RECORD TURNOUT year. Early voting is shattering records and reports I read have Dem turnout running well ahead of GOP voters.

It remains to be seen if President Trump can pull out a second term, or if Joe Biden wins and sends Trump packing. Whatever happens, keep your eye on the Senate where many more Republican seats are up for grabs this year than Democrat slots.

In many ways, the fate of the Senate is more important than who wins the White House. Why? If Biden wins but the Republicans hold the Senate, they will be able to block much of his liberal agenda. But if Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate, expect the worst in the coming four years. Let’s hope not!

But a “Blue Wave” is definitely possible this year. Dems are turning out in droves to vote against Trump. And then there are the GOP “NeverTrumpers” who will vote for Biden. I hate to admit it, but I’m really worried.

Measured Risk Portfolios Webinars October 21 & 22

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All the best,

Gary D. Halbert

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