FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
October 13, 2020

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Gun Sales Explode In 2020 – The Question Is, Why?

2. Racial Tensions Are Also Fueling Record Gun Sales

3. Americans Who Already Own Guns Are Buying More

4. 400 Million: More Guns Than People in the US Today

Overview

Gun sales in the US have gone through the roof in 2020, especially since the widespread protests turned violent last spring in many large cities across the US. Over three million more guns have been sold since March than occurred in the same period a year ago.

The question is, why have gun sales exploded this significantly in such a short time? We know, of course, that part of it is because protests around the country have turned violent, and people in these cities fear for their safety. We also know widening efforts to defund the police are making many Americans more nervous, again about their safety.

We also know this is an election year and, as always, there are fears that a Democratic victory would likely bring stricter gun control laws, or worse. For all these reasons and more, gun sales have exploded this year, and a record number of purchasers are first-time gun buyers.

With the election less than a month away, I think this topic deserves our attention, regardless whether you are a conservative or a liberal. Let’s jump in.

Gun Sales Explode In 2020 – The Question Is, Why?

When Americans are concerned about their personal security, they buy firearms. Typically, firearm sales spike following school shootings, terrorist attacks or when US presidents threaten to impose new gun control laws. But we have had none of that this year.

Instead, we’ve had the COVID-19 pandemic which began in March, followed by the killing of George Floyd in late May and non-stop social unrest and violent riots since then. Gun sales have skyrocketed this year to record levels.

Based on the number of background checks conducted by the FBI, firearms experts report that almost three million more firearms have been sold since March than would have ordinarily been sold during these months. Half of that increase occurred in June alone.

The 2020 spike in sales, however, is less about concerns regarding access to firearms, than personal safety. In March, concerns about personal safety arose from both a deadly new virus and an economy in free fall. By June, concerns about the virus and the economy remained, and were compounded by new evidence of racial injustice in policing, widespread protests/riots and discussions of defunding the police.

Daily sales of firearms normally run in the range of 80,000 to 100,000 according to NCIS. However, since President Trump declared a national emergency over COVID-19 on March 13, daily firearm sales surged to over 176,000 on March 16. Over 700,000 additional firearms were sold in March alone.

The geographic pattern in the additional sales is not highly correlated with COVID-19 death rates nor with increases in unemployment rates. This suggests the spike in firearm sales resulted from a general sense of national apprehension and fear, rather than a response to COVID or the economic lockdown.

Over the next two months, as the country settled into its new environment and even moved into a period of scheduled re-openings, firearm sales stabilized, but at a higher level than earlier in the year.

Then George Floyd was killed on May 25, which started a chain of events leading to a Minneapolis police station being burned down on May 28. Protests then spread nationwide, including to Lafayette Square in Washington, DC, where the federal government forcibly removed protesters, reportedly using chemical agents and rubber bullets, on June 1. Additional protests, including clashes with police, have continued since then.

The onset of these protests started another surge in firearm sales, rising back to 150,000 per day on June 2 and June 3. The protests faded somewhat afterward, but as public discussions about Black Lives Matter and defunding the police persisted, firearm sales remained elevated throughout the month of June.

As a result of these events, firearm sales in June were the highest on record, with 3.9 million firearms sold.

Racial Tensions Are Also Fueling Record Gun Sales

Along with the general concern for personal security, these protests have unleashed additional data which suggests that inherent racial tensions in our society also contributed to the June spike in firearm sales.

Internet searches for racial terms spiked in late May and early June after George Floyd was killed. The chart below presents Google Trends index values for search terms considered to be “racial epithets.” While Google does not release actual counts for searches, it does create an index with a reading of 100 being the highest value. You can see it spiked to new highs in June.

The increase in firearm sales in June may have had nothing to do with racial animus, although I doubt it. But it’s possible the protests could have engendered concerns regarding personal security, and therefore greater firearm sales, with no relationship to the simultaneous increase in racial animus. That’s a stretch if you ask me.

Americans Who Already Own Guns Are Buying More

Over one-fifth of Americans who already have one or more guns in their household have added at least one more firearm just since the Black Lives Matter anti-police protests began in late May – and say they feel safer because they’ve done so.

Forty-three percent (43%) of American adults say they or someone in their household owns a gun, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey. Of these Americans, 22% say they or someone in their household has purchased a gun since the violent anti-police protests began.

A majority, 54%, of adults who live in gun-owning households say they feel “more safe” with a gun in the house. Only 7% say they feel less safe with a gun in the house. Another 38% think the presence of the gun has no impact on their personal safety.

Among those who have added a gun in the last four months, however, 90% say they feel more safe. Why else would they add another firearm?

Over two-thirds, 68%, of Likely US Voters are ‘Concerned’ that deadly attacks on the police will lead to a shortage of police officers and reduce public safety where they live, with 44% who are ‘Very Concerned.’ I agree.

Men are more likely than women to have a gun in the household and to have added one or more this year when the protests intensified. Those under 40 are more likely than their elders to have gotten a gun since the violent protests began.

Some 57% of Republicans have a gun in their household, compared to 39% of Democrats and 37% of adults not affiliated with either major party. Even though 39% and 37%, respectively, are well below the 57% for Republicans, that’s still a LOT of Democrats and Independents who currently have guns in their homes!

More Guns Than People in US Today: 400 Million Firearms

The bottom line is, there are more guns than people in the US today – 400 million guns for a population of 330 million, including children. Adults over 18 (who can purchase guns) make up apprx. 77% of the population or about 254 million people. That means over 1.5 guns per adult person, and there are millions of people who don’t own any guns at all.

Gun-control advocates point to these numbers when they argue for more gun laws. What they don’t point out is the fact that violent crime has been declining steadily for decades, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey and Pew Research, among others. Higher rates of gun ownership are not associated with higher rates of violent crime.

Next, I would suggest yet another reason firearm sales are skyrocketing this year. There is a presidential election less than a month from now. Joe Biden has been leading President Trump in the polls consistently all year, and his lead has widened even more in the wake of the recent presidential debate – which Rasmussen says Biden narrowly won.

Mr. Biden has called for sweeping new gun laws and regulation if he is elected, including holding gun manufacturers civilly liable for their products. You should read them. I believe this is a big reason why gun and ammunition sales have skyrocketed this year.

Finally, and for the record: I own numerous firearms including rifles, shotguns and handguns. I have been a hunter since I was about 12 or 13. I am an ardent supporter of the Second Amendment.

And I’ll close with this: Most hunters don’t commit violent crimes. I’ll leave it there for today.

Best regards,

Gary D. Halbert

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