FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
December 3, 2019

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Americans Want More Government, But Not Ready For Socialism

2. Views on Socialism Not as Popular as Mainstream Media Suggests

3. Democrats' Support for Socialism Has Risen Further – No Surprise

4. Support Gaining for Larger Government Role in Solving Problems

5. Little Desire For Expanded Government if it Means Higher Taxes

6. Americans Not Clamoring for More Regulation of Business

Overview

In the past year, I have repeatedly warned how a growing number of Americans are embracing socialism, at least as they understand it, and especially among younger Americans such as Millennials. While this trend continues to concern me very much, there is at least a little good news in the latest Gallup polls on the subject.

In September and October, Gallup conducted in-depth surveys on Americans’ views on the role government should play in our lives. The result was that most Americans believe the government should do more to solve problems and make our lives better. In short, most Americans want bigger government.

The problem is, they don’t want higher taxes to pay for it. And for now, at least, a majority doesn’t believe socialism is the answer. There is a lot of interesting information to be gleaned from the latest slew of Gallup polls released in November. I’ll summarize them for you below.

Editor’s Note: Today’s E-Letter is a little longer than normal and includes lots of charts.

Americans Want More Government, But Not More Taxes or Socialism

Americans' reaction to the term "socialism" remains more negative than positive in new Gallup polling, as solid majorities continue to view capitalism and free enterprise positively. At the same time, Americans are expressing slightly greater support for activist government across a range of measures, suggesting a more conducive climate for socialist-style policies taking root than has been the case in years.

In its latest round of surveys, Gallup compared Americans’ views of the role of government in our lives today versus what it was back in 2010 when we saw the peak of the Tea Party movement and as Republicans made major gains in Congress.

Since 2010, the percentage of Americans saying government should do more to solve the country's problems has increased 11 percentage points, to 47%, and the percentage wanting government to take active steps to improve people's lives is up eight points, to 42%. Gallup also found a nine-point increase to 25% in the percentage who would prefer to have more government services and higher taxes – rather than the alternatives of less government services and less taxes, or no change to the current balance.

These trends offer a mixed picture on perceptions of government regulation of business, one of the core tenets of socialism. On the one hand, a scant 28% say there is too little government regulation, unchanged from 2010. On the other, 53% now agree with the statement that business will harm society if it is not regulated, up from 45% saying this in 2010.

Here’s a notable finding: Since 2010 there has been no meaningful change in the percentage of Americans holding positive views of socialism per se, holding steady at just under 40%. While that number probably sounds high to most of my readers, at least it has not changed much since 2010 according to Gallup.

Put differently, Americans' reaction to the term socialism remains more negative than positive in the latest Gallup polling, as solid majorities continue to view capitalism and free enterprise positively. That’s the good news.

One cautionary note is that Americans' support for government playing a more active role in solving problems was as high or higher at points in the past, such as after the 1991-1992 recession and after 9/11 – suggesting that increases in pro-government views can be episodic (temporary) rather than permanent.

Here are more details on these key public opinion trends as Congress debates enhanced roles for the government in healthcare, the environment and income redistribution, and as the Democratic Party chooses its standard-bearer for 2020.

Views on Socialism Not as Popular as Mainstream Media Suggests

As noted above, Americans' reaction to the term "socialism" remains more negative than positive in the new Gallup polling, while solid majorities continue to view capitalism and free enterprise positively.

In the October poll, 39% of Americans said they have a positive opinion of socialism, while 57% viewed it negatively. Gallup first asked this question in 2010, and since then positive responses about socialism have been fairly steady, between 35% and 39%. The current percentage viewing socialism positively is similar to the 43% who earlier this year told Gallup that "some form of socialism" would be good for the US.

Americans' ratings of capitalism have not changed and are about the inverse of socialism's ratings, with roughly six in 10 viewing capitalism positively. Americans are even more positive toward "free enterprise," with 87% evaluating that term positively. That’s great news!

In addition to these three economic systems, the poll found majorities of Americans holding positive views of three aspects of capitalism: small business (97%), entrepreneurs (90%) and big business (52%).

Democrats' Support for Socialism Has Risen Further – No Surprise

Although not favored by the public at large, socialism has been getting a warmer reception from Democrats, with its positive rating reaching 60% in 2016. That may have reflected the influence of avowed Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign. Since then, Democrats' positive views of socialism have remained elevated, with this year's uptick to 65% the highest yet.

Over the same period, Republicans have become less charitable toward socialism, with today's 9% viewing it positively down from the high point of 24% in 2012. Let’s take a look.

A slight majority of Democrats have continued to view capitalism positively. However, as more have become comfortable with socialism, the lines have crossed – and since 2016, Democrats have held a modestly more positive opinion of socialism than of capitalism.

Republicans' opinion of capitalism has consistently been positive but has grown more so since President Donald Trump took office. Both Republicans and independents continue to evaluate capitalism more positively than socialism.

Notably, young adults (those aged 18 to 34) have mixed views of both socialism – 52% positive, 47% negative – and capitalism – 47% positive, 50% negative. That’s troubling!

Support Gaining for Larger Government Role in Solving Problems

Even as Americans' opinions of capitalism and socialism have held steady, there has been an increase in the percentage of those who want to see an expanded government role in society.
When asked to rate their own views on a five-point scale where "5" indicates they favor government taking more active steps in every area it can to improve people's lives, and "1" indicates they favor government providing only the most basic functions – a new high of 42% place themselves on the activist side of the scale (rating themselves a "4" or "5"). By contrast, only 29% put themselves on the limited government side ("1" or "2") and 29% are in the middle ("3").

The latest polling data show a clear shift toward a more active government role. Each time this question was asked from 2010 to 2016, Americans divided evenly, with no more than 35% favoring a more active government. As you can see below, that is clearly changing.

Support for activist government has increased among all major party groups, although there is still a wide partisan gulf – with 62% of Democrats, 40% of independents and 22% of Republicans today favoring a more active government.

Little Desire For More Government if it Means Higher Taxes

A more active government would almost certainly result in higher taxes. However, relatively few Americans favor that approach when given the choice among: 1) more government services and more taxes to pay for them, 2) fewer government services and lower taxes, or 3) keeping services and taxes as they are now.

In the latest poll, only 25% would opt for increased taxes and services, 32% want no change and 42% prefer smaller government. That’s encouraging. Yet while increased taxes and services is the least popular option, slightly more choose it now than did so in Gallup's readings between 1993 and 2013, when no more than 20% favored it.

As you might expect, self-identified liberals (58%) and Democrats (45%) are among the subgroups most likely to prefer higher taxes and more government services. Also, 35% of younger adults favor that approach, compared with about one in five among those over 35.

Trends Suggest Rise in Pro-Government Views May Be Episodic

As previously mentioned, the September poll found the public closely split on a different question about the role of government, with 49% saying the government is doing too much that should be left to individuals and businesses and 47% wanting it to do more to solve the country's problems.

The 47% in favor of more government is significantly higher than the 36% recorded in 2010. It is also among the highest Gallup has recorded for this position in its trends on this question since the early 1990s.

However, demand for more government has been higher in the past, including shortly after the 9/11 attacks when 50% preferred a greater role for government. Gallup also found high percentages (47% and 49%) favoring more government in 1992 and 1993 as the nation was emerging from an economic recession.

These high-profile challenges arguably prompted more Americans to see a need for increased government action – although the change in attitudes was short-lived and Americans reverted to wanting government to do less.

Americans Not Clamoring for More Regulation of Business

Regulation of business, possibly extending to government ownership of the means of production, is a core tenet of socialism. But public demand for such regulation is relatively low, with barely a quarter of Americans saying there is currently "too little" government regulation of business in the U.S.

More think government regulation should be increased today than said so during the Obama administration; from 2009 to 2016, close to half said there was too much regulation. Since the avowedly pro-business Trump administration took office, that view has eased, but more Americans still perceive there is too much regulation (38%) rather than too little (28%), with 33% saying the amount of regulation is about right.

Among the major political parties, Democrats are most likely to say there is too little regulation (46%), while a majority of Republicans say there’s too much regulation (59%). What else is new?

Conclusions: Open to Bigger Government, But Not Socialism

Taken together, these results suggest American public opinion is more favorable today than a decade ago toward policies that may expand government, but not if that means significantly higher taxes to pay for it.

Not surprisingly, support for, and opposition to, bigger government are largely split along party lines generally speaking – with Democrats in favor of larger government and higher taxes to pay for it, and Republicans favoring limited government and lower taxes.

The good news is that support for, and opposition to, socialism have remained at about the same levels they have been over the last decade. You wouldn’t know that by listening to the mainstream media, but Gallup sets the record straight.

I hope this was helpful.

Best regards,

Gary D. Halbert

 

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