For over 30 years, Gary D. Halbert has been publishing newsletters for the investment community. Now you can receive his FREE Forecasts & Trends E-Letter delivered each week to your e-mail inbox. Gary covers the latest economic forecasts and market analysis, and you'll enjoy his always-spirited political commentaries.


This Week's Forecasts & Trends E-Letter

Thoughts on GOP Tax Cuts & China’s Faltering Economy

December 5, 2017

I veer from our usual roster of topics this week to bring you an update on China and its prospects for continued hot economic growth, or lack thereof. China is the second largest economy on the planet, behind the US, and many (if not most) Americans believe that it won’t be too long before China overtakes the US as the largest economy in the world.

This thinking is taught in many US public schools, colleges and elsewhere. According to this theory, China will become the largest economy in the world as early as the next decade or by 2030 at the latest, so we’re told.

The Chinese government claims that its economy has been growing by 6% or better a year for the last decade. Yet there is a growing body of evidence that suggests China’s economy has grown by less than half that amount in the last few years. Likewise, there is growing evidence that China’s population growth rate has peaked and is now in decline.

If just these two trends are true, then there is virtually no chance that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in the next decade, if ever, despite the mainstream media narrative that it’s only a matter of time.

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