For over 30 years, Gary D. Halbert has been publishing newsletters for the investment community. Now you can receive his FREE Forecasts & Trends E-Letter delivered each week to your e-mail inbox. Gary covers the latest economic forecasts and market analysis, and you'll enjoy his always-spirited political commentaries.

This Week's Forecasts & Trends E-Letter

September Jobs & Manufacturing Reports Disappoint Again

October 6, 2015

As is becoming increasingly frequent, we will touch on several bases today, given that there’s so much going on these days. (Speaking of bases, How ‘bout them Texas Rangers!!) Hitting several topics in a single E-Letter makes it more interesting and fast-paced for me, and I hope the same is true for you. After all, YOU are what this is all about. That’s why I always value your input, positive or negative, so much.

Today, we’ll start with the latest economic reports. I wish I could tell you they were encouraging – most were not. There was last Friday’s disappointing unemployment report for September – which was below expectations for the second month in a row. Then there was last Thursday’s decidedly downbeat report on US manufacturing, which was yet another big disappointment.

These two negative reports have most Fed-watchers very confident now that there will not be a rate hike this year. Most now believe that “lift-off” won’t happen until early 2016. Yet the Fed may fear it will lose its credibility if it doesn’t make at least one move this year. So expect this debate to continue at least until December 17 when we will know for sure.

Last Wednesday, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned that there are new reasons to be concerned about the global economy, and emerging economies in particular. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde issued the latest warning, along with another call for the US Fed to delay the first rate hike until next year. But does the Fed care what she thinks? Probably not.

Finally, I have just completed a new SPECIAL REPORT: Seven Risk Factors That Could Drive the Markets Lower. Back in March and April, I saw the storm clouds gathering on the horizon and warned my readers to reduce their long-only (buy-and-hold) positions in stocks and equity funds.

Still, most investors don’t understand why this six year-old bull market seems to have run off the tracks. In this new Special Report, I discuss in detail the unique combination of risk factors that are weighing on the markets today and may continue to do so.

Best of all, I offer advice on what you can do to protect yourself should the latest market downturn continue. If you are looking for some clarity in this crazy market and some advice on how to protect your portfolio, be sure to download my latest FREE SPECIAL REPORT at the end of today’s E-Letter.

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